ASML Q3 Results Signal Supply Shortfall
ASML Q3 results showed record sales and higher guidance after management said demand will exceed planned supply through 2028, tightening EUV capacity.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Management said planned output in 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand.
- Customers increased short and medium-term equipment forecasts driven by expectations for AI investment.
- ASML expects about 65 low-NA EUV shipments in 2026 versus 44 in 2025, highlighting execution risk.
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ASML reported its Q3 results on Oct. 14, 2026, with record sales and strong profit, and said customer demand will exceed currently planned supply in 2027 and 2028. The outlook signals a stretched supply environment for chip-equipment makers and related stocks.
Record Quarter and Raised Guidance
ASML posted net sales of €11.7 billion, a gross margin of 57.5%, and net income of €5.0 billion, reflecting execution of its capacity ramp. Sales landed near the high end of the company’s guidance.
The company raised its full-year 2026 sales forecast to €44 billion–€45 billion and set Q4 sales guidance at €14.2 billion–€15.2 billion. It expects gross margins around 56% for the year and about 57% for the fourth quarter. Installed-base-management sales, which cover service and upgrades for existing equipment, are projected to grow roughly 50% year-over-year.
Demand Will Exceed Planned Supply Through 2028
Management said in the investor call, "Our current planned levels of output in 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers." This frames the quarter’s results as part of a longer capacity-constrained cycle.
Customers have increased short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts, driven mainly by expectations about the size and duration of AI investment. This shift underpins ASML’s multi-year demand visibility.
The company expects to ship about 65 low-numerical-aperture (low-NA) extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) systems in 2026, up from 44 in 2025, as it boosts EUV output for advanced memory and logic production.
ASML had previously planned a roughly 30% year-over-year capacity increase for low-NA EUV and deep-ultraviolet (DUV) immersion systems in 2027. It is now investigating an additional roughly 30% increase for 2028, describing this as an active study rather than a finalized plan.
Some customers are expressing interest in placing orders for 2029 and 2030, though the company characterized these as expressions of interest rather than firm, contractually committed orders.
Together, these comments shift focus from confirmed demand to the pace and scale at which ASML can expand output to meet multi-year customer requests driven by AI-related investment.
