Gold Prices Surge on Fed Rate-Cut Odds

Gold prices rose on November 26, 2025, as markets increased the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Falling jobless claims and a softer dollar supported bullish momentum ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Fed Rate-Cut Expectations and Labor Market Data

Market expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at the December 17–18 meeting climbed above 80%, up from about 50% a week earlier. This shift followed dovish comments from John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and weaker economic signals.

Initial jobless claims fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, down 6,000 from the prior week and below the forecast of 230,000. This decline reinforced demand for safe-haven assets despite mixed labor-market signals.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on November 20 that nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%. The November employment report is scheduled for release on December 16 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Gold Price Movement and Technical Outlook

Spot gold closed at $4,167.47 per ounce on November 26, up 0.9% from the previous session and reaching a session high of $4,169. Market positioning increased amid holiday-thinned trading volumes.

Technical resistance lies between $4,192 and $4,245, with a breakout above this range potentially opening the path toward recent peaks near $4,370 and longer-term extensions above $5,000. Support levels include the 20-period simple moving average at about $4,056 and the psychological $4,000 mark. A deeper fallback could test the swing low near $3,889.

Gold has traded within a consolidation range between $3,900 and $4,400 for about a month. The GLD exchange-traded fund (ETF) traded near spot levels during the session.

Investors will focus on the December employment report and the FOMC meeting for confirmation of the market’s repricing and any dovish guidance that could further influence gold and dollar dynamics.