ConocoPhillips Fourth-Quarter Miss on Lower Oil Prices
ConocoPhillips fourth-quarter earnings missed estimates as lower realized oil prices outweighed production gains, nudging trader positioning and flows.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Adjusted fourth-quarter EPS was $1.02, missing a $1.11 consensus.
- Realized prices averaged $42.46 per boe, down 19% year over year and offsetting production gains.
- Marathon Oil integration doubled synergies to a run rate above $1 billion.
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ConocoPhillips (COP) reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 5, 2026, falling short of Street expectations as lower realized oil prices outweighed gains from higher production and integration synergies.
Quarter Results and Drivers
The company said in a press release on Feb. 5, 2026, that adjusted fourth-quarter earnings were $1.02 per share, missing the consensus estimate of $1.11. On a GAAP basis, earnings per share were $1.17, with net income of $1.4 billion, down from $2.3 billion a year earlier. Revenue for the quarter totaled $14.2 billion.
Realized prices averaged $42.46 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), down about 19% year over year, reflecting weaker oil prices. Production rose to 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOED), an increase of 137,000 MBOED year over year. After adjusting for acquisitions and dispositions, underlying output declined 2.6%, with Lower 48 volumes at 1.44 million MBOED.
2026 Guidance and Capital Plan
ConocoPhillips provided full-year 2026 production guidance of 2.23 million to 2.26 million boe per day on its Feb. 5 earnings call. The company expects capital expenditures of roughly $12 billion and adjusted operating costs of $10.2 billion. It is targeting an additional $1 billion in capital and operating cost reductions beyond other savings.
The Marathon Oil integration is complete, with synergy capture more than doubling to a run rate above $1 billion. The company realized about $1 billion in one-time benefits and eliminated the Marathon capital expenditure program. CEO Ryan Lance said, “We successfully integrated Marathon Oil, outperforming our acquisition case.”
At year-end 2025, ConocoPhillips held $7.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents and reduced net debt by about $2 billion. Full-year cash from operations was $19.9 billion, with capital returned to shareholders totaling about $9 billion, equal to 45% of cash from operations. The company declared a first-quarter dividend of $0.84 per share.
