Oil Prices Steady As Gulf Flows Recover, Iran Talks Stall
Oil prices were little changed as stalled U.S.-Iran talks supported bids while recovering Gulf exports capped upside and pushed Brent near $89.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Stalled U.S.-Iran talks and sanctions uncertainty supported prices.
- Recovering Gulf oil exports capped near-term upside for traders.
- Goldman and JPMorgan flow estimates showed Gulf exports near 2025 levels.
HIGH POTENTIAL TRADES SENT DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX
Add your email to receive our free daily newsletter. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Oil prices were mostly unchanged in early Asian trading on Oct. 1, 2026, as stalled U.S.-Iran talks and sanctions uncertainty supported the market while signs of recovering Gulf oil exports limited near-term gains for traders and investors.
Gulf Oil Exports Recover as Flows Near Pre-2026 Levels
Goldman Sachs estimated total Gulf oil exports, including vessels with transponders switched off—known as “dark exports”—at 23.3 million barrels per day in the week through Sept. 29, roughly matching 2025 levels. Reuters reported that Gulf exports doubled during September, driven by increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting its East-West Pipeline. JPMorgan estimated the 10-day average for total oil exports over the five days preceding Sept. 30 at 20.5 million barrels per day, about 89% of 2025 levels.
Price Moves and Forecasts Reflect Market Uncertainty
The November Brent contract settled on Sept. 30 at $103.50 a barrel, while the more active December Brent rose to $98.03 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled at $90.42, marking notable monthly gains. A Reuters survey of 30 economists and analysts forecast the 2026 average Brent price at $89.05 a barrel and U.S. crude at $83.90, with Brent estimates ranging from $77.27 to $97.60. The revisions reflect expectations of prolonged Gulf-export disruption offsetting concerns about demand growth.
Market commentary highlighted offsetting forces: stalled U.S.-Iran talks and sanctions uncertainty supported buying, while recovering Gulf flows generated selling pressure, creating near-term trading friction. As one analyst noted, “Although buying continued amid supply concerns as peace talks stalled, selling pressure also prevailed as Middle Eastern oil exports showed signs of recovery.” Goldman Sachs maintained a year-end Brent forecast of $85 a barrel and a 2027 forecast of $80, citing adaptation in Middle Eastern supply and Chinese import demand as factors moderating prices. The firm also warned of upside risk if renewed escalation damages energy infrastructure.
