Nike Earnings: Q1 Preview Tests Turnaround
Nike earnings arrive after the U.S. close; analysts expect weaker revenue and EPS, and traders will watch Greater China and margins for flow shifts.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Fiscal Q1 2027 results will test whether prior EPS beats translate into sustained revenue and margin recovery.
- Consensus had placed revenue near $11.3 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.44.
- Greater China sales and margin trends are the critical risks to the turnaround thesis.
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Nike Inc. (NKE) is set to report fiscal first-quarter 2027 results after the U.S. market close on Oct. 1, 2026. Analysts expect year-over-year declines in revenue and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS), focusing attention on Greater China sales, margins, and the company’s prior guidance.
Consensus Estimates and Guidance
The quarter covers June through August 2026, within Nike’s fiscal year ending May 31. Consensus estimates place revenue near $11.3 billion and adjusted diluted EPS around $0.44, down from $11.72 billion and $0.49 in the year-ago quarter. The company’s guidance called for reported revenue to decline in the low-to-mid-single-digit range, with slight gross-margin improvement and selling and administrative expenses broadly flat in dollar terms. The outlook assumed no foreign-exchange benefit, keeping currency-neutral trends consistent with recent performance.
Analyst forecasts varied. Jefferies projected a more optimistic $11.5 billion in revenue and $0.48 in EPS, while others trimmed estimates. Bank of America cut fiscal 2027 and 2028 EPS views by about 11% and 12%, respectively, and Needham also lowered forecasts. Despite this, Nike has exceeded EPS estimates in each of the four prior quarters, setting a backdrop of cautious optimism.
Regional Performance and Margins
Pre-release estimates allocated Nike Brand revenue roughly as follows: $5.1 billion in North America, $3.2 billion in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), $1.3 billion in Greater China, and $1.4 billion in Asia Pacific and Latin America. Year-over-year regional changes were projected at about +2% in North America, −4% in EMEA, −12.6% in Greater China, and −3% in Asia Pacific and Latin America. The steep decline in Greater China sales remains a key concern for investors assessing recovery prospects.
Nike’s fiscal 2026 revenue was approximately $46.4 billion, down from $51.4 billion in fiscal 2024. Its reported net-income margin fell from 12.9% to 6.7% over that period. Fiscal 2026 EPS was $2.10, or $1.58 excluding a one-time tariff-recovery benefit, creating a challenging base for margin comparisons.
The upcoming report and any updates to guidance will test whether Nike’s recent streak of quarterly EPS outperformance can translate into sustained revenue and margin recovery. Investors will closely watch management’s commentary and margin trends for signs of steadier growth.
