Michael Burry Shorts Caterpillar in Bet Against AI Rally
Michael Burry shorts Caterpillar in a Substack post, calling it overvalued and prompting reassessment of AI-linked positioning amid stretched chip valuations.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Michael Burry disclosed a Caterpillar short on June 30 via a paid Substack post.
- He called Caterpillar an overvalued AI-infrastructure beneficiary, citing a multi-decade high price-to-sales ratio.
- The basket included Nvidia, Applied Materials, Tesla and SOXX as part of an 'AI bubble' short.
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Michael Burry disclosed a short position in Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) on June 30, 2026, in a paid Substack post, calling the industrial company an overvalued beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending. The move is part of a broader "AI bubble" short that also includes Nvidia Corporation, Applied Materials Inc., Tesla Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX).
Caterpillar Short Rationale
Burry described Caterpillar as benefiting from AI infrastructure demand, particularly from data centers requiring power-generation and related equipment. He highlighted the company’s price-to-sales ratio at its highest level in at least three decades, illustrating this with a chart in his disclosure. Burry said he had never previously shorted Caterpillar, having historically held it long. Caterpillar gained roughly 86% in the first half of 2026, making it one of the strongest performers linked to the AI rally.
AI and Semiconductor Short Positions
In the Substack post titled "Trading Post," Burry listed entry prices for his short positions: Caterpillar at $1,060.98, Nvidia at $198.09, Applied Materials at $729.40, Tesla at $416.22, and SOXX at $642.80. He framed these trades as a bet against inflated AI and semiconductor valuations, calling it an "AI bubble short." Burry cited the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index trading more than 65% above its 200-day moving average, a level previously seen only around 2000.
The shorts span electric vehicles (Tesla), semiconductors (Nvidia, Applied Materials, SOXX), and industrial equipment (Caterpillar), reflecting a broad cyclical and valuation thesis rather than isolated company-specific calls. Burry did not disclose the size or structure of these positions, and they are not reported on SEC Form 13F, leaving regulatory verification and notional exposure unknown.
