Intel Q4 Guidance Misses Estimates After Mixed Q3 Results
Intel Q4 guidance missed analyst expectations; Oct. 29 release blamed PC-market weakness and an Israel-fab outage, pressuring near-term share positioning.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $15.0B-$16.0B and non-GAAP EPS $0.25 missed consensus near $17.1B and $0.43.
- Management cited an ongoing PC-market slowdown expected through at least the first half of 2027.
- A Kiryat Gat outage reduced Q4 revenue by about $300M and cut gross margin 200 bps.
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Intel’s fourth-quarter guidance fell short of analyst expectations when the company on Oct. 29, 2026, released mixed third-quarter results, citing ongoing PC-market weakness and an October disruption at its Kiryat Gat, Israel, facility that would reduce next-quarter revenue and margins.
Q3 Results, Q4 Guidance, and Segment Performance
Intel Corp. (INTC) reported third-quarter revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21.0% from $13.7 billion a year earlier. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.52, and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.60. The non-GAAP gross margin rose to 44.1% from 40.0% a year earlier, while operating cash flow totaled $5.1 billion.
For the fourth quarter, Intel forecast revenue between $15.0 billion and $16.0 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.25, below analyst estimates near $17.1 billion and $0.43. Management attributed the outlook to continued PC-market weakness, which it expects to persist through at least the first half of 2027.
Segment results showed a divergence between strong data-center growth and weaker client demand. Data-center revenue reached $7.3 billion, up 78.0% year over year. Client Computing and Physical AI revenue declined 5.0% to $8.1 billion, falling short of expectations. Intel Foundry revenue rose 58.0% to $6.7 billion. The company said strong demand for data-center products was constrained by operating limits that prevented it from meeting some server-product demand.
An October explosion at Intel’s Kiryat Gat facility halted production for two weeks. The outage is expected to reduce fourth-quarter revenue by about $300 million and cut gross margin by roughly 200 basis points. Intel is assessing which wafers affected by the shutdown can be salvaged for use or sale.
This combination of softer guidance, the Kiryat Gat disruption, and capacity constraints exposes near-term revenue to the ongoing PC slowdown, even as data-center momentum supports higher-margin sales and cash flow. CFO David Zinsner said the PC slowdown will continue at least through the first half of next year.
