10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 19-Year High
10-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high after S&P Global PMI strengthened, pushing Fed-funds futures to price higher odds of an October rate increase.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.1%, its highest level since 2007.
- Fed-funds futures priced about a 73% probability of an October rate increase.
- S&P Global flash U.S. Composite PMI rose to 58.4, strongest business activity in five years.
HIGH POTENTIAL TRADES SENT DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX
Add your email to receive our free daily newsletter. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 19-year high on Sept. 23, 2026, after S&P Global’s flash PMI showed the strongest U.S. business activity in more than five years. The data pushed markets to increase the odds of further Federal Reserve tightening while the Treasury kept buyback limits unchanged.
Yields Rise as Fed Rate Expectations Shift
The benchmark 10-year note yield reached 5.1%, up 8.7 basis points, marking its highest level since 2007. The two-year note yield climbed to 4.9%, its highest since June 2024. The S&P Global flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index rose to 58.4 in September, the strongest U.S. business-activity reading in over five years, driven by a surge in new orders.
Following the data, fed-funds futures priced about a 73% probability of an October rate increase, up from roughly 53% earlier. This shift reflects investors’ reassessment of how quickly the Fed might resume tightening if growth remains robust.
Treasury Buyback Ceiling Held as Markets Adjust
The Treasury maintained a $6 billion ceiling for a scheduled Sept. 24 buyback of 20- to 30-year government bonds. A Sept. 10 buyback repurchased $5.2 billion against that limit. Deputy Secretary Francis Brooke’s remarks before the Treasury Market Conference were listed in the Treasury’s Sept. 22 press-release index.
Market accounts interpreted the unchanged buyback ceiling as a sign that Treasury was not expanding purchases to counter the recent rise in yields. Investors are beginning to consider a 6% yield on the 10-year note, reflecting growing concern about longer-term rate risk as yields above 5% become less disruptive than previously assumed.
