Vail Resorts Earnings Show Weather Hit, Cautious Outlook

Vail Resorts (MTN) reported fiscal 2026 results on Sept. 28, 2026, showing weather-driven declines in skier visitation that reduced profitability. Management cited weaker visits that trimmed net income and Resort Reported EBITDA, while pass revenue and real-estate gains partially offset the impact. The company issued fiscal 2027 guidance based on a partial recovery in visitation.

Fiscal 2026 Results

For the year ended July 31, 2026, Vail Resorts reported net income attributable to the company of $148 million, down from $280 million a year earlier, on revenue of $2.8 billion. Diluted earnings per share fell to $4.12 from $7.53. Resort Reported EBITDA declined to $746 million from $844 million in fiscal 2025. The 2026 results included about $11 million of one-time costs tied to a multiyear resource-efficiency transformation plan.

Skier visitation dropped 13%, pushing lift revenue down 3.5%, although pass revenue rose 4%, supported by advance-commitment pass products that helped moderate the decline in lift income. For the fiscal fourth quarter, the company reported revenue of $278 million and an adjusted loss per share of $5.34.

Season-to-date pass-product sales through Sept. 18, 2026, were down 12% in units, 10% in days sold, and 6% in sales dollars compared with the prior year. Management attributed the weaker operating results primarily to poor weather, citing low snowfall and weak snowpack in key western U.S. markets and difficult conditions in Australia. Real-estate gains partially offset the weather-related weakness in the mountain-resort business.

The board declared a quarterly dividend of $2.22 per share.

Fiscal 2027 Guidance and Outlook

Vail Resorts expects net income attributable to the company of $158 million to $233 million for fiscal 2027 and Resort Reported EBITDA of $805 million to $865 million, including about $14 million of one-time costs. At the midpoint, the outlook implies a Resort EBITDA margin near 27%, excluding one-time items.

Management said the guidance assumes a meaningful year-over-year recovery in visitation from the weather-affected 2026 season but expects total visitation to remain modestly below original fiscal 2026 expectations. U.S. visitation may not fully return to fiscal 2025 levels.

Compared with the midpoint of the original fiscal 2026 outlook, total revenue is expected to rise about 3%, driven mainly by stronger ancillary revenue. Lift revenue is projected to remain relatively flat as targeted pricing and product actions offset some pricing-related growth.

The outlook factors in roughly 4% cost inflation, higher marketing spending, normalized incentive compensation, and strategic investments that will weigh on near-term margins. The company expects about $25 million of incremental efficiencies in fiscal 2027 from its transformation plan, which it projects will deliver approximately $110 million of annualized savings by the end of the year.

Fiscal 2027 cash taxes are expected to be about $75 million to $85 million. Real-estate EBITDA is projected to be roughly negative $10 million to negative $4 million, with no property closings currently scheduled. Management emphasized that the outlook depends on a meaningful visitation recovery and that pass-demand weakness remains an explicit operating consideration.