US Jobless Claims Drop
US jobless claims fell in early January, the Labor Department reported, suggesting worker retention amid slower hiring and clouding market positioning.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Initial claims were 198,000 for the week ending Jan. 10, 2026, down 9,000 from the prior week.
- The four-week average eased to 205,000, and continuing claims fell to 1.884 million.
- 2025 nonfarm payrolls added 584,000, averaging about 49,000 monthly and highlighting slower hiring versus 2024.
HIGH POTENTIAL TRADES SENT DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX
Add your email to receive our free daily newsletter. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
US jobless claims fell in the week ending Jan. 10, 2026, the Labor Department reported, suggesting firms are retaining workers even as hiring slowed and annual payroll gains weakened in 2025.
Weekly Claims and Labor Market Trends
The Labor Department's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report showed initial jobless claims, seasonally adjusted, totaled 198,000, down 9,000 from the revised prior week of 207,000. This is the lowest reading since November 2025 and well below the long-run average of 360,910 since 1967. Economists had expected claims of 215,000, making the figure a surprise to consensus.
The four-week moving average declined to 205,000 from 211,750. Continuing claims for the week ending Jan. 3, 2026, fell 19,000 to 1.884 million, slightly below estimates of 1.890 million.
Nonfarm payroll growth slowed sharply in 2025, with total gains of 584,000, averaging about 49,000 per month compared with roughly 2 million added in 2024, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in December. The sub-200,000 weekly claims reading is only the second such print in the past year and comes amid low measured layoffs despite slower hiring and downward revisions to prior payrolls. This combination complicates assessments of labor-market strength.
Short-term forecasts project initial claims rising to about 230,000 by the end of the first quarter of 2026 and approaching 240,000 in 2027, indicating potential reversion risk. The contrast between unusually low weekly claims and muted annual payroll gains leaves policy and market implications uncertain.
