Strait of Hormuz Oil Prices Rise After U.S.-Iran Strikes

Strait of Hormuz oil prices rose after U.S. forces launched a third round of strikes on Iran on July 11, 2026. U.S. military statements said the waterway remains open, and tanker tracking shows flows recovering, limiting long-term disruption.

U.S. Strikes and Shipping Status

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it launched the latest strikes at 19:15 ET on July 11, using land- and sea-based fighter aircraft, drones, and naval vessels to target about 140 Iranian military sites. Across three nights, U.S. forces have struck more than 300 targets under presidential direction to degrade Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial vessels. CENTCOM emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels and that commercial traffic continues to move. Since early May, U.S. forces have facilitated the transit of more than 800 commercial vessels carrying roughly 400 million barrels of crude oil through the strait. “Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing,” the statement said.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the strait closed “until further notice” and said it had fired on or disabled vessels, including an attack on the M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the waterway. Earlier in the week of July 6–10, three merchant ships and tankers were attacked in or near the strait, prompting the U.S. retaliatory strikes.

Iranian and IRGC-linked outlets reported strikes on U.S. bases and regional allies, including a claimed attack on a base in Jordan and missile and drone activity affecting the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, with several Gulf states reporting interceptions. Iran’s Ministry of Health said 17 people were killed and 115 injured in U.S. strikes on Wednesday and Thursday before the latest round.

Oil Market Reaction and Outlook

ICE exchange data showed September 2026 Brent futures at about $75.71 as of 20:00 ET on July 11. Brent futures climbed to $78.68 per barrel on July 12 after the latest strikes. Energy commodities rose from multi-month lows while U.S. stock-index futures slipped amid renewed Middle East conflict headlines.

Futures and gasoline prices have fluctuated on headlines. Initial war-risk gains after Iran’s vows to respond were followed by intraday pressure as officials emphasized ongoing peace talks and rising global supply.

Market analysis indicates traders view the episode mainly as a short-term risk premium. Expanding Western Hemisphere supply and alternative export routes bypassing the Gulf chokepoint have reduced the chance of a sustained crude shock. Meanwhile, wider refining margins—the difference between product prices and crude input costs—have kept gasoline and diesel prices elevated.

Tanker-tracking data cited in market commentary show flows through Hormuz recovering after Iran’s reported closure, though the pace slowed heading into the weekend.

Diplomatic efforts are also shaping market tone. Oman is preparing a preliminary proposal to regulate shipping routes in the strait. President Donald Trump stated the strait is open to commercial traffic and signaled readiness for further action if attacks continue. The administration reportedly gave Iran a deadline to publicly commit to ending attacks on commercial shipping or face unspecified consequences.