SpaceX Stock Under Selling Pressure Ahead of Lockups

SpaceX stock is trading below its IPO price after a mid-July Starship abort, with rising short interest and an imminent lockup expiry that could release large insider holdings and increase supply ahead of the company’s first public earnings.

Short Interest and Trading Pressure

Short interest in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) has surged to roughly 29–32% of the public float, equal to about 185–206 million shares and approximately $25 billion in notional exposure. This concentration is intensified because only about 5% of SpaceX’s roughly 13 billion total shares are currently tradable, focusing supply and speculation on a small public float.

Shares have fallen from a post-IPO intraday high near $225 to recent levels around $115–$124 in mid-to-late July, trading below the $135 IPO price. The decline included persistent selling, with seven straight down sessions through July 20 and stretches of 10 down days in 12 trading sessions, accelerating the pullback.

SpaceX’s 13th Starship test was aborted on July 16 after multiple Raptor engines failed to ignite. Elon Musk wrote on X, “Some of the engines didn't start, triggering an automatic launch abort,” adding that another attempt could follow within days.

Lockup Expirations, Earnings, and Valuation

SpaceX completed its Nasdaq IPO on June 12, 2026, at $135 per share. The first substantial lockup release is expected two trading days after the company’s first public earnings report, with about 911.5 million insider shares becoming tradable on or around August 6, 2026. Additional lockup tranches could release as many as 1.37 billion shares by year-end, more than doubling the current tradable float.

The company reported Q1 2026 revenue of $4.69 billion and an EPS loss of $1.19, reflecting continued accounting losses at the IPO. The shares trade at a very high price-to-sales multiple, commonly cited around 80–90 times trailing revenue, with recent market-cap snapshots near $1.5–$1.6 trillion.

Analyst views diverge. HSBC reportedly initiated coverage with a Hold rating and a price target below the IPO price, near $115, while consensus data show most analysts rate the stock Buy with an average 12-month target above $290. This gap highlights differing assumptions about SpaceX’s long-term plans.

The combination of a crowded short position, a tiny tradable float, and a large, imminent supply increase frames SpaceX as a high-multiple, execution-sensitive stock heading into its first public earnings. This setup could sustain selling pressure even if technical buyers briefly enter the market.