SpaceX Stock Swings as AI Push and Lockups Divide

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) (SPCX) stock swung over the past 72 hours as investors weighed the company’s deepening AI push, highlighted by the Aug. 14 closing of its deal for Cursor, alongside a staggered lockup schedule that has repeatedly increased tradable supply.

Cursor Acquisition and AI Strategy

SpaceX completed an all-stock acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor valued at about $60 billion, issuing roughly 391 million Class A shares and converting Cursor’s outstanding equity into approximately 389.3 million SpaceX shares, with restricted stock units and options assumed, according to an SEC filing confirming the closing. The deal ranks among the largest startup takeovers on record.

Cursor will operate as a wholly owned subsidiary within a new SpaceXAI division and integrate with SpaceX’s GPU-intensive Colossus infrastructure. The companies have already launched a beta Grok Bot and contributed to Grok model updates. Cursor’s team gains access to SpaceX’s large GPU fleet, aiming to accelerate model development and reduce costs as SpaceX competes more directly with established AI players in enterprise coding tools.

Management has framed the acquisition as part of a broader shift, reiterating a target of reaching a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end 2026. The company plans for up to 20 gigawatts of AI power and cooling capacity by the end of 2027, with about 15 gigawatts seen internally as a more likely near-term outcome.

Q2 Results, Capital Spending, and Lockup Expirations

SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of about $7.8 billion, a 91.9% year-over-year increase and materially above consensus. Gross profit was near $4.3 billion, and the company posted a net loss of roughly $541 million with diluted EPS of –$0.09, each line item beating expectations. AI-related revenue reached approximately $2.6 billion, up about 247% year-over-year and well above estimates. Starlink subscribers totaled around 12 million.

Capital expenditures surged, with one analysis citing $15.8 billion allocated to AI and orbital data infrastructure, while another reported total Q2 capex near $18.4 billion, of which $15.8 billion was tied to AI, reflecting some variation across reports.

The Form S-1 preceding the June IPO established a staggered, accelerated lockup schedule that has significantly increased free float. The first major tranche became eligible on Aug. 6, freeing roughly 911 million shares. About 242 million of those shares traded on the first Friday after the release, representing 26.6% of the newly eligible block, with no clear signs of concentrated insider selling.

A timed release on Aug. 20 added roughly 319 million shares, raising cumulative eligible holdings to about 1.69 billion. An Aug. 21 tranche reportedly made approximately $42.5 billion of stock tradable. Additional 7% tranches are scheduled through Oct. 25, with larger releases after Q3 earnings and a full unlock on Dec. 9. The S-1 also bars CEO Elon Musk from selling until June 2027.

Analysts and traders attribute the stock’s swings to two main factors: the scale of near-term AI infrastructure spending and the stepwise expansion of tradable shares. This has fueled debate over whether SpaceX should be valued primarily as an AI/cloud infrastructure company or as a space and launch operator. The shares have shown weak correlation with large-cap technology stocks and mixed correlation with peer space-sector benchmarks, trading roughly 35% below their post-IPO peak.

Sell-side views vary widely. Bernstein raised its price target to $248 and reiterated an Overweight rating, emphasizing orbital data centers as a key driver. Its scenario projects orbital-AI compute could generate about $600 billion in annual revenue by 2031, assuming orbital-AI pricing between $30 and $55 per watt and full Starship reusability. This build-out would require roughly 3,500 Starship launches by 2031, approaching nearly one launch per day by the end of 2027 across five pads.

Other analysts assign much lower near-term odds to this upside. One warned of a potential drop to $75 within 12 months after a relief rally of more than 17% over three weeks. Another maintained a roughly $300 base case, modeling that the Cursor deal could add about $2.5 billion to SpaceX revenue in 2026 and roughly $13 billion in 2027 under its assumptions.

With strong headline revenue and AI growth behind it, the immediate risk-reward for SpaceX depends on whether demand can absorb scheduled unlocks while the company integrates Cursor into SpaceXAI and executes its costly AI-focused capital plan.