SpaceX Stock Slides as Analysts Split on Outlook

SpaceX stock has fallen sharply since its June 12 Nasdaq debut, trading well below its post-IPO peak as analysts disagree on valuation and an early-August lock-up expiry that could release substantial insider supply.

Post-IPO Price Shock

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) priced its IPO at $135 per share. On debut day, the stock opened at $150 and closed at $160.95, up 19.2% from the offering price. Within days, shares surged to an all-time high near $225.64.

Since then, the stock has dropped roughly 45–50% from that peak, trading in the low $110s with recent closes near $113.50 and intraday lows just above $109. Its July 7 inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index failed to sustain buying momentum, reflecting a swift shift in market sentiment after the IPO rally.

Lock-Up Expiry and Analyst Divergence

The public float remains small, around 5% of total shares, with lock-up expiries clustered between August 4 and August 6, 2026, followed by additional tranches through December 8. Reports suggest up to 1 billion shares could become available over time, creating a near-term supply overhang that may increase selling pressure once restrictions lift.

Despite the sell-off, about 75–80% of analysts maintain Buy-equivalent ratings. Average and median 12-month price targets cluster between $225 and $245, implying significant upside from current levels. Coverage includes roughly 23 Buy calls, five Neutral, and one Sell.

However, targets vary widely. One independent valuation places fair value near $63 per share, while a major Wall Street firm sets a $300 target, arguing the market undervalues SpaceX’s artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions. Other firms publish targets near $210 and $255. This range reflects disagreement over how much value to assign to the company’s launch, connectivity, and emerging AI compute projects.

Critics say the stock was “priced for perfection” before the recent correction, citing a near-term bear case based on a roughly 49x revenue multiple. Concerns include heavy AI capital spending funded partly by debt and uncertain economics for orbital AI data centers. Operational issues, such as an aborted Starship launch due to an engine problem, contributed to a multi-session decline.

Analysts caution that the combination of a small float and staggered lock-up expirations could keep pressure on shares through early August and the company’s first post-IPO quarterly report. Many advise new buyers to exercise caution, while some existing holders remain steady. This dynamic explains why bullish long-term targets coexist with warnings of short-term vulnerability.

Trading is likely to focus on the early-August lock-up window and the upcoming quarterly filing. The outcomes of these events could determine whether the recent correction stabilizes into a buying opportunity or extends the sell-off.