Shell Exxon Middle East Production Shifts

Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. said on April 8, 2026, that fighting in the Gulf had reduced Shell's first-quarter integrated-gas outlook, while Exxon expected a multibillion-dollar uplift to its upstream earnings from higher oil and gas prices, highlighting risks to Shell Exxon Middle East production.

Shell’s First-Quarter Gas Outlook and Exxon’s Earnings Forecast

Shell trimmed its first-quarter 2026 integrated-gas production forecast to 880,000–920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 948,000 boe/d in the fourth quarter of 2025. The reduction reflects fighting in the Gulf that curtailed volumes from its Qatar operations. Shell expects this decline to be partly offset by ramping up production at LNG Canada. This trimmed outlook underscores near-term vulnerability in Shell’s gas flows despite new capacity coming online.

Exxon anticipates a first-quarter upstream earnings boost of up to $2.9 billion from higher oil and gas prices linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The company said this price effect should more than offset disruptions to some of its Middle East production. Exxon also expects additional downstream benefits to emerge in later quarters. The forecast illustrates how commodity price moves can produce asymmetric results across integrated oil-and-gas portfolios.

Gulf Infrastructure Attacks and Regional Impact

Since early March 2026, missile strikes and fires have hit Gulf energy infrastructure, directly affecting liquefied-natural-gas (LNG) facilities and causing contract disruptions. QatarEnergy reported missile strikes at Ras Laffan, which caused fires and damage, including to Shell’s gas-to-liquids plant. These attacks led to force majeure declarations on some long-term LNG supply contracts.

On March 19, Exxon’s 50%-owned Samref refinery in Saudi Arabia was struck by a drone. Other incidents include a March 16 drone attack on the Shah gas field in the UAE, a March 18 strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field, a drone strike on Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery on April 3, and fires on April 5 at the Ruwais refinery in the UAE, Gulf Petrochemical in Bahrain, and Kuwaiti facilities. Operations at Ras Tanura halted temporarily before restarting, and the Habshan gas plant in the UAE also experienced impacts. These attacks have caused operational stoppages and contract disruptions, prompting companies to revise near-term output expectations.

The combination of damaged Gulf infrastructure and higher commodity prices has produced divergent effects for Shell and Exxon: Shell faces trimmed supply and near-term output headwinds, while Exxon benefits from a price-driven uplift in upstream earnings. Both companies issued public updates ahead of their full first-quarter results.