SanDisk Stock Slides as AI Memory Trade Wanes

SanDisk stock slumped on July 29, 2026, as a broader memory-sector selloff accelerated amid renewed fears of competition from China’s CXMT and weak results from peers. The pullback contrasts with several analysts’ recent target raises and trim-but-positive adjustments.

Memory Sector Selloff and Competition Concerns

SanDisk’s decline reflects a wider downturn across the NAND and DRAM memory sectors as investors reassess the durability of AI-driven memory demand. On July 21, 2026, Morgan Stanley research warned the memory rally could be nearing an inflection point, projecting contract prices to peak in the fourth quarter of 2026 and noting fading momentum behind earnings upgrades.

Concerns about competition intensified after CXMT’s Shanghai IPO, raising the prospect that the Chinese company could expand beyond DRAM into NAND, pressuring pricing and margins. This risk has become central in market discussions about how supply shifts might erode recent pricing gains.

Weakness among peers amplified the selloff. SK Hynix’s quarterly results and broader softness at Micron and SK Hynix weighed on sentiment, contributing to SanDisk’s 6.8% drop on July 24. Selling accelerated late in the week, with shares plunging more than 10% on both July 24 and July 27 as investors reevaluated the sustainability of the earlier AI-driven advance.

Analyst Targets and Valuation Sensitivity

Analysts remain divided amid the pullback. On July 23, Susquehanna trimmed its SanDisk target to $3,050 from $3,250 while maintaining a Positive rating, describing the adjustment as a correction to its model rather than a change in its long-term outlook. The firm continues to express constructive views on multiyear AI-flash demand.

In contrast, Bernstein raised its target to $3,000 from $1,700 while keeping an Outperform rating, and Wells Fargo boosted its target to $1,620 from $1,250 with an Equal-Weight stance. These moves highlight the split between firms optimistic about longer-term upside and those cautious on near-term cycles.

Consensus ratings still range from Buy to Strong Buy, with average targets clustering roughly between $1,930 and $2,667. These variations reflect differences in update timing, analyst lineups, and expectations for stronger NAND pricing and rising earnings assumptions.

SanDisk’s valuation amplifies its sensitivity to news. The stock traded at about 43 times trailing earnings and roughly 7 times next year’s estimates, making it vulnerable to downward revisions in memory-demand forecasts.

Investors are focused on fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results due August 5, 2026. Analysts will watch for clearer signs on memory pricing and whether AI-driven demand is sustaining or beginning to decline, a development that could determine if the near-term selloff leads to a rebound or further repricing.