SanDisk Q3 Earnings Test

SanDisk (SNDK) will report fiscal third-quarter earnings after the market close on April 30, 2026. The results will reveal whether gains in NAND pricing and AI-driven data-center demand that boosted the prior quarter are sufficient to meet the company’s elevated guidance and Street expectations.

Q3 Guidance and Consensus Expectations

SanDisk has forecasted Q3 revenue between $4.4 billion and $4.8 billion, non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $12 to $14, and a non-GAAP gross margin of 65% to 67%. Street consensus estimates revenue near $4.73 billion, reflecting a roughly 178% year-over-year increase from $1.7 billion, and EPS of $14.66. The outlook assumes continued gains in NAND pricing, with average selling prices expected to rise about 55%, alongside strong AI data-center demand. This leaves the quarter highly sensitive to near-term pricing shifts.

Some sell-side models project results modestly above consensus, and several price targets have risen ahead of the release, heightening expectations and the potential for a sharp market reaction if results diverge from forecasts.

Q2 Momentum and Pricing Trends

For the quarter ended January 2, 2026, SanDisk reported revenue of $3.03 billion, up about 61% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $6.20. Data-center revenue reached $440 million, about 15% of total sales, rising 64% sequentially and 76% year over year.

Average selling prices per gigabyte climbed 36% during the quarter, while exabytes sold increased about 22%. These trends helped lift the non-GAAP gross margin to 51.1% and generated adjusted free cash flow of $843 million. On a GAAP basis, the company reported net income of $803 million, or $5.15 per diluted share.

SanDisk’s recent performance, driven by higher prices and faster data-center purchases, underpins the elevated expectations for Q3 and supports analysts’ views that stronger-than-expected pricing could significantly raise the company’s earnings run rate.

The company separated from Western Digital in February 2025, a corporate change investors have linked to the stock’s re-rating amid rising AI demand and NAND pricing.

Risks to this momentum include a slowdown in AI demand, new capacity coming online, a broader NAND price correction after 2027, or supply-chain and geopolitical disruptions. With Q2 results already setting a high bar, even a modest shortfall in pricing or visibility could temper investor enthusiasm.

Management’s comments on pricing trends and visibility into the second half of fiscal 2026 during the post-close remarks will be key to whether the market views recent gains as sustainable or subject to re-pricing.