Oil Prices Surge on U.S.-Iran Conflict Fears

Oil prices surged as Brent crude rallied on April 30, 2026, following reports that the president would be briefed by the Pentagon on military options and signs the Strait of Hormuz remained blockaded. Analysts raised forecasts amid concerns of prolonged supply disruption.

Brent Hits Wartime High

Brent crude reached $122 to $123 per barrel on April 30, marking the highest level since 2022 and a wartime peak. The price gained about 3.0% intraday and roughly 20.0% over the prior week. Since the conflict began at the end of February, prices have climbed about 75.0% and more than doubled year-to-date from around $60 per barrel.

Trading extended an advance that first pushed Brent above $120 per barrel on April 29. Floating storage of oil rose to record levels as export blockades limited shipments and reduced available seaborne capacity.

Blockade and Market Outlook

The U.S. imposed a blockade on Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, closing the route to most ships. The move aims to cut Tehran’s oil revenue and pressure producers toward shutdowns. Reports that the president would be briefed on military options and public signals favoring an extended blockade contributed to the recent price rally.

The conflict, which began at the end of February, had entered its ninth week by April 29. A cease-fire on April 8 failed, keeping the risk of sustained export disruption high and adding uncertainty about when flows might normalize.

Analysts raised oil-price forecasts for a second time since the war began, citing the possibility that prolonged closure of the key shipping lane could deplete crude supplies and sustain elevated prices. These revisions factored in the buildup of floating storage and the risk that producers might idle fields if revenues remain constrained.

The surge affected other markets as well. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to about 4.4% as investors priced in higher inflation from the oil shock. Equity markets remained relatively upbeat, creating a split between stock gains and bond-market caution that could raise borrowing costs for consumers. Policymakers face this tension while central banks have kept policy steady amid the shock.

UBS’s Mark Haefele warned that the oil price increase could add more than 140 basis points to European inflation and reduce the scope for further central-bank tightening, explaining why bond yields and policy expectations have been sensitive to crude price moves.