Nvidia Earnings Preview: Analysts Bullish
Nvidia earnings preview sees analysts lift targets as Blackwell GPU demand and data-center strength counter AI-spend durability risks to positioning.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Analysts remain broadly bullish heading into the Feb. 25 Q4 report.
- Q3 revenue was $57.0 billion; data-center revenue was $51.2 billion and EPS was $1.30.
- Insiders sold 1,611,474 shares for about $292 million in the past 90 days.
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Nvidia (NVDA) approaches its Feb. 25 Q4 report with broad analyst optimism, driven by strong data-center results, preserved margin targets, and rapid demand for Blackwell GPUs. Concerns over AI-spending sustainability continue to weigh on the stock in 2026.
Q3 Results and Q4 Estimates
Nvidia reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $57 billion, a 62% increase year-over-year, led by data-center sales of $51.2 billion, up 66%. Non-GAAP earnings per share rose 60% to $1.30, beating estimates by $0.07.
Analysts expect adjusted Q4 EPS of $1.52, a 71% gain from the prior year’s $0.89, with full-year 2026 consensus EPS at $2.77. The Q4 earnings report is scheduled for Feb. 25 after market close.
Demand Drivers and Risks
Demand for Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs has been rapid, with cloud-hosted GPU capacity reportedly sold out. Management maintains an operating-margin target in the mid-70% range and is emphasizing software and services to build recurring revenue. A follow-on architecture, Rubin, is planned for the second half of calendar 2026.
U.S. export controls restricting high-end AI chip sales to China remain a significant risk. In December 2025, sales of the H200 chip were approved for select customers, accounting for about 25% of Nvidia’s China chip shipments. China previously represented roughly 20–25% of the company’s data-center revenue.
Insider sales have drawn attention, with filings showing 1,611,474 shares sold in the past 90 days, totaling approximately $292 million. Notable transactions include Executive Vice President Ajay K. Puri’s sale of 200,000 shares on Jan. 21 at an average price of $180.04 and Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress’s sale of 27,640 shares on Feb. 4 at $175.72.
Ahead of the Q4 report, analysts raised price targets on Feb. 12, ranging from $200 to $352, with an average near $265. A market sentiment metric places professional scores between neutral and strong-buy.
Analysts’ bullish stance reflects confidence in rapid product adoption and the company’s margin targets supporting near-term results. However, export restrictions and recent insider selling introduce risks that could affect sentiment ahead of the earnings release.
