Netflix Deutsche Bank Upgrade Lifts Valuation Case
Netflix Deutsche Bank upgrade included a $95 target and 18x 2027 earnings base, framing a valuation rerating if 23.0% EPS growth materializes.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Deutsche Bank upgraded Netflix to Buy while lowering its price target to $95.
- Valuation used roughly 18x 2027 earnings and could expand into the low-to-mid-20s.
- Kraft tied the re-rating to international engagement, a more-than-60.0% non-US production footprint and AI.
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Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) received a Buy upgrade from Deutsche Bank on Sept. 29, 2026. Analyst Bryan Kraft based the Netflix Deutsche Bank upgrade on stronger international engagement, a production footprint outside the U.S., and potential artificial intelligence applications.
Deutsche Bank Upgrade and Rationale
Deutsche Bank raised Netflix’s rating to Buy from Hold while lowering its operating-income and free-cash-flow forecasts after the company’s second-quarter results. Kraft argued that investors have focused too heavily on U.S. viewing trends, noting that international viewing time increased year over year in each of the past four six-month periods.
He highlighted that more than 60% of Netflix’s production now occurs outside the United States, calling this an established competitive advantage. Kraft linked this scale to Netflix’s global brand, subscriber base, revenue, and organizational expertise. He also described artificial intelligence as largely beneficial, citing potential uses in content production, personalization, and advertising.
Valuation Forecasts and Market Context
Deutsche Bank lowered its price target to $95 from $100, applying a valuation multiple of roughly 18 times estimated 2027 earnings. This contrasts with about 40 times forward earnings at Netflix’s June 2025 peak. Kraft projected 23.0% earnings growth in 2027 and said the multiple could expand into the low-to-mid 20s if that growth materializes, leaving room for a re-rating. The valuation multiple was central to Deutsche Bank’s upgraded recommendation.
Not all analysts share this view. Wells Fargo downgraded Netflix to Underweight earlier, citing engagement concerns. Market data showed 37 of 51 analysts rated the stock Buy or Strong Buy, reflecting a split in the sell-side community.
Kraft’s thesis depends on international engagement continuing to outpace U.S. trends, Netflix maintaining its production advantage outside the U.S., and the company successfully applying technology and AI across content, personalization, and advertising. This stance reflects Deutsche Bank’s research rather than new guidance from Netflix. How these factors evolve will determine whether the valuation case holds.
