Nebius Q3 Revenue Beat, Capex Plan Raises Risk

Nebius Group (NBIS) reported in a Nov. 12, 2026 release that its third-quarter revenue exceeded analyst expectations as AI-cloud demand surged. However, management raised capital spending and shifted some 2026 revenue into 2027, prompting share volatility amid a broader neocloud selloff.

Q3 Results and Capital Spending

Nebius posted consolidated revenue of $981 million for the third quarter, a 571% increase from $146 million a year earlier. For the nine months ended Sept. 30, revenue rose 549% to $2.0 billion from $302 million. AI cloud revenue accounted for most of the quarter’s total at $974 million, up 643% year over year. Remaining performance obligations increased to $38.7 billion as of Sept. 30 from $37.5 billion at the end of June.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) reached $466 million, reversing an adjusted loss of $5 million in the year-earlier quarter. Adjusted net income was $91 million, compared with an adjusted loss of $100 million a year earlier. On a GAAP basis, the net loss from continuing operations narrowed to $38 million, or $0.13 per Class A and Class B share, from a $120 million loss, or $0.50 per share.

Capital spending surged to about $7.3 billion in the quarter, up from $956 million in Q3 2025. Management said prepayments on third-quarter agreements covered more than 100% of the related capital expenditures. The company’s unaudited consolidated results include Nebius AI cloud, Avride, and TripleTen. Toloka is now accounted for under the equity method following a third-party investment in the second quarter of 2025.

2027 Guidance and Funding Outlook

Management lowered its 2026 revenue outlook to the low end of the $3.0 billion–$3.4 billion range, attributing the revision to third-party data-center capacity deliveries shifting some revenue into early 2027. The annualized revenue run rate is now expected to exceed $7 billion in February 2027, about two months later than previously projected.

Nebius raised its 2026 capital-expenditure estimate to roughly $27 billion from a prior $20 billion–$25 billion range and outlined a 2027 spending plan of $40 billion–$45 billion. Initial 2027 revenue guidance stands at $12 billion–$13 billion, which the company described as a conservative pace for its build-out.

Customer prepayments and financing arrangements with investment-grade clients are expected to cover about 75%–85% of 2027 capital spending. More than half of the contracted New Jersey data-center capacity for Microsoft is scheduled for delivery by the end of 2026, with the remainder expected in the second quarter of 2027. Arkady Volozh, founder and chief executive, wrote in the shareholder letter that the company expects to reach pre-tax breakeven by the end of 2027.

Despite operational gains and a stronger near-term sales outlook, investors sold shares amid concerns over the larger build-out and delayed revenue timing. This added volatility as market participants assessed execution and funding risks tied to the company’s heavy 2027 spending.