Jobless Claims Drop as Unemployment Holds
Jobless claims fell to 199,000 while the Chicago Fed left December unemployment at 4.56%, giving traders a steadier labor read ahead of the BLS report.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Initial jobless claims were 199,000, down 16,000 and below a 220,000 forecast, marking a third straight weekly decline.
- Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment estimate stayed at 4.6%.
- Official BLS December jobs report is due Jan. 9, 2026.
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Jobless claims fell in the latest weekly report, marking a third consecutive decline, while the Chicago Fed’s advance indicators kept its December unemployment estimate steady. The data suggest a broadly stable labor market ahead of the monthly government jobs report.
Initial Jobless Claims Decline
Initial jobless claims totaled 199,000 for the week ending Dec. 27, 2025, down 16,000 from the prior week’s 215,000 and below economists’ forecast of 220,000. This marked the third straight weekly drop, signaling easing layoffs and providing fresh momentum in weekly labor data that market participants watch closely.
Chicago Fed Unemployment Estimate and Labor Flows
The Chicago Fed’s advance release on Dec. 30, 2025, showed its Real-Time Unemployment Rate forecast for December at 4.56%, unchanged from November. The estimate is based on a reference week ending Dec. 13, 2025, and remains above the roughly 4.1% reading a year earlier.
Advance indicators showed stable labor flows, with a layoffs and other separations rate of 2.10% for December, steady with November and slightly above the 2.06% recorded a year earlier. The hiring rate for unemployed workers was 44.72%, compared with 44.54% in November and 47.39% in December 2024. These figures point to steady labor market churn even as weekly claims have eased.
The official Bureau of Labor Statistics December unemployment report is scheduled for Jan. 9, 2026. Economists are divided between a 4.6% unemployment rate and a slight decline to 4.5%, with consensus nonfarm payroll gains around 55,000.
