Silver Prices Surge as China Export Controls Loom
Silver prices surge on Beijing export controls, raising supply risk and volatility for traders and pressuring silver ETFs and technical positioning.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- China's Jan. 1, 2026 export controls on refined silver underpin a near-term supply squeeze.
- Silver climbed 7.2% to $75.515 per ounce, leaving the metal up 160% year-to-date.
- Silver ETFs and technical support above $72 per ounce amplified volatility for traders.
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Silver prices surged on Dec. 30, 2025, as traders reacted to geopolitical tensions and Beijing’s planned limits on refined-silver exports, increasing volatility and positioning the metal for an unusually large annual gain.
Price Surge and Technical Support
Spot and futures silver climbed 7.2% intraday to $75.515 per ounce, drawing concentrated trading interest amid year-end flows. Despite significant selling pressure, silver held technical support above $72 per ounce, a level traders identified as a near-term floor during volatile trading.
The rally leaves silver on track to finish 2025 with a 160% year-to-date gain. This advance pushed the silver-to-oil ratio to historic highs, with one ounce of silver trading at a premium to a barrel of crude oil, which was near $58.34. This relative valuation gap has shifted commodity comparisons across trading desks.
Supply Constraints and Market Outlook
China will impose export controls on refined silver starting Jan. 1, 2026. These controls affect about 70% of the refined silver used in artificial intelligence, solar power, and Big Tech manufacturing, creating a near-term supply squeeze that helped drive the late-season rally.
Silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reflected this strength. As of 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 30, SLV and SIVR rose 6.4%, SLVP gained 2.9%, SILJ increased 2.1%, and SIL advanced 1.2%, showing broad gains across physically backed and sector-focused funds.
Analyst opinions diverged. A major bank forecasted continued volatility but did not label the market a bubble. A veteran technical analyst cautioned that price peaks tend to be short-lived. Other commentary highlighted stretched valuations and noted the silver-to-oil ratio had entered uncharted territory.
Tier-1 secondary sources reported no official notices from the COMEX or London Metal Exchange in the 72 hours ending Dec. 30, leaving exchange operations unchanged despite the policy shifts and elevated price levels that are reshaping risk profiles for traders and industrial users.
