Intel Q1 Guidance Misses Estimates
Intel Q1 guidance fell below Street forecasts citing industry-wide supply shortages that will limit server-chip fulfillment and could pressure shares.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Intel Q1 guidance midpoint of $12.2 billion fell below Street consensus of $12.6 billion.
- Intel cited industry-wide supply shortages limiting server-chip fulfillment in Q1 before improvement in Q2.
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Intel said in a press release on Jan. 22, 2026, that it exceeded fourth-quarter expectations on revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) but issued first-quarter guidance below Wall Street forecasts, citing industry-wide supply shortages that will limit server-chip fulfillment.
Fourth-Quarter Results
Intel reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $13.7 billion, down 4.0% year over year. The company posted a GAAP gross margin of 36.1%, down 3.1 percentage points, and returned to a GAAP loss of $0.12 per diluted share. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.15 per diluted share.
By segment, Intel Products generated $12.9 billion in revenue, down 1.0% year over year, while Intel Foundry revenue rose 4.0% to $4.5 billion. Full-year 2025 revenue was $52.9 billion, essentially flat year over year. GAAP EPS for the full year was a loss of $0.06 per diluted share, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.42. Cash from operations in the fourth quarter totaled $4.3 billion.
First-Quarter Guidance
For the first quarter of 2026, Intel forecast revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with GAAP EPS of a loss of $0.21 per diluted share and non-GAAP EPS of zero. It projected a GAAP gross margin of 32.3% plus or minus 2.5 percentage points and a non-GAAP gross margin of 34.5% plus or minus 2.5 points. The company expects a GAAP tax rate of negative 79% and a non-GAAP rate of 11%. The midpoint of the revenue range, about $12.2 billion, falls below the Street consensus of $12.63 billion.
Intel attributed the shortfall to constrained supply rather than weak demand. The company said available supply will be at its lowest level in the first quarter before improving in the second quarter and beyond. It added that demand fundamentals remain healthy across core markets, with rapid adoption of artificial intelligence reinforcing the importance of the x86 ecosystem. Industry-wide supply shortages are limiting server-chip fulfillment.
