e.l.f. Beauty Guidance Signals Weaker Year
e.l.f. Beauty guidance shows fiscal 2027 sales and profit below analysts' forecasts and flags a $15-$20 million Iran-war oil hit, raising downside risk.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Fiscal 2026 net sales rose 25% and adjusted EBITDA increased 13%.
- Q4 EPS was $0.32, $0.03 above consensus despite a year-over-year decline.
- Management warned elevated oil prices tied to the U.S.-Iran war could cut fiscal 2027 results by $15-$20 million.
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e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (NYSE: ELF) said in guidance on May 20, 2026, that despite strong fiscal 2026 results it expects fiscal 2027 sales and profit to fall short of analysts’ forecasts and cautioned that the U.S.–Iran war could reduce next year’s results by millions.
Fiscal 2026 Results and Fourth-Quarter Performance
The company reported fourth-quarter and full-year results for the three and twelve months ended March 31, 2026, in an official press release. Net sales rose 25% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA, a proxy for operating profit, increased 13%. Management said all five brands grew in fiscal 2026, with rhode and Naturium delivering particularly strong results. CEO Tarang Amin described the year as the company’s seventh consecutive with net sales and market share growth, reflecting the strength of its team, strategy, and brand portfolio.
In the fourth quarter, diluted earnings per share were $0.32, down from $0.78 a year earlier but modestly above the consensus estimate of $0.29, beating expectations by $0.03. Quarterly revenue also exceeded analyst forecasts.
Fiscal 2027 Outlook and Risks
The company’s fiscal 2027 guidance implies annual net sales and profit will fall below average analyst expectations. Management warned that sustained elevated oil prices tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict could reduce fiscal 2027 results by an estimated $15 million to $20 million, primarily through higher transportation and input costs. This impact is characterized as a potential headwind, not a booked charge, for the fiscal year running April 1, 2026, through March 31, 2027.
Management also noted pressure on lower-income U.S. consumers from rising fuel and living costs, which has softened unit volumes in recent months. In response, e.l.f. plans to roll back some tariff-driven price increases in selected categories to support traffic and unit demand. This combination of cautious guidance and tactical price rollbacks, along with a more guarded near-term outlook for the core e.l.f. brand facing tougher year-over-year comparisons, highlights a trade-off between margin per unit and volume retention. If oil-price pressures persist, this could amplify downside risk to fiscal 2027 profit.
