Cyber Monday Sales Fall Short of Forecasts

Adobe Analytics real-time data on December 1, 2025, showed Cyber Monday 2025 sales fell well short of pre-event forecasts, highlighting shoppers’ precision buying and elevated discounting that shifted much of the season’s spending earlier in Cyber Week.

Sales Results and Payment Trends

Adobe Analytics reported U.S. Cyber Monday online sales of $9.1 billion, about 36% below its pre-event forecast of $14.2 billion, a shortfall of roughly $5.1 billion. Salesforce’s retailer-transaction data showed global Cyber Monday sales of $17.3 billion, reflecting a different measurement approach.

Earlier in the week, Adobe recorded U.S. online sales of $11.8 billion on Black Friday, $6.4 billion on Thanksgiving Day, and $11.8 billion over the November 29–30 weekend. These figures brought cumulative Cyber Week online sales to approximately $41.0 billion through Cyber Monday, suggesting spending was spread across multiple days rather than concentrated on a single peak.

Discounting remained intense, with average price cuts of 30% on electronics, 26% on apparel, and 27% on toys. Retailers including Walmart and Amazon offered markdowns up to 50% on fashion and as high as 55% in some categories. These elevated discounts coincided with strong early-week volume.

Mobile commerce accounted for 58% of online spending, led by smartphones and wearables. Buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) financing supported an estimated $1 billion of Cyber Monday transactions and is projected to total $20.2 billion for the holiday season, up about 11% year over year. The rise of mobile channels and BNPL is reshaping checkout flows and payment mixes.

Adobe projected a peak spending window from 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET, estimating cart throughput near $16 million per minute during those hours. Despite this, much of Cyber Week’s volume was distributed across several days and promotional events.

Adobe described shoppers’ behavior as “precision buying,” focusing on fewer, higher-value items and spreading purchases across sale days. The company also noted rising credit-card debt and delinquencies on short-term loans amid concerns about tariffs, job security, and the aftermath of a 43-day government shutdown. The National Retail Federation forecasts November–December retail spending will exceed $1 trillion for the first time, with year-over-year growth of roughly 3.7% to 4.2%, down from 4.3% the previous year.

The Cyber Monday shortfall may reflect differences in measurement methods, timing lags in transaction processing, consumers pulling purchases forward into earlier promotion days, or forecasting-model error.