Consumer Confidence January 2026 Plummets

The Conference Board reported that Consumer Confidence in January 2026 fell sharply as both current assessments and near-term expectations worsened. This decline raises downside risk to household spending and could weigh on economic demand in the coming months.

Confidence Indexes Decline to Lowest Since 2014

The Conference Board said in a press release on January 27, 2026, that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 84.5 (1985=100) in January, down 9.7 points from a revised 94.2 in December 2025. This is the lowest reading since May 2014, when the index stood at 82.2. The Present Situation Index, which reflects current business and labor conditions, fell 9.9 points to 113.7. The Expectations Index, measuring short-term outlook, declined 9.5 points to 65.1, falling below the 80 threshold that typically signals a recession ahead. The survey had a preliminary cutoff of January 16, 2026, and the report was published at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Dana M. Peterson, the board’s chief economist, said, "Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened."

Spending Plans and Economic Concerns

Six-month buying plans showed increased caution. Affirmative responses for big-ticket purchases declined while "maybe" and "no" replies rose. Intent to buy new vehicles softened even as interest in used cars increased. Plans to purchase homes, televisions, and furniture weakened, and affirmative plans for services also slipped. However, mentions of travel services rose despite softer vacation plans.

Current business conditions remained muted. The share of respondents describing conditions as "good" fell to 17.9% from 19.8%, while those calling conditions "bad" rose slightly to 17.8%, resulting in a near-zero net balance. The labor market outlook weakened as well: the share saying jobs were "plentiful" dropped to 23.9% from 27.5%, while those saying jobs were "hard to get" increased to 20.8% from 19.1%.

Short-term outlook measures deteriorated further. The share expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months declined to 15.6% from 18.7%, while those expecting conditions to worsen rose to 22.9% from 21.3%. The portion anticipating more jobs fell to 13.9% from 17.4%, with those expecting fewer jobs rising to 28.5% from 26.0%. The share expecting income increases slipped to 15.7% from 18.8%.

The decline in confidence cut across all demographics and components. Six-month averages fell for all ages, generations, income levels, and political groups. Independents posted the sharpest drop, Gen Z remained the most optimistic cohort, and households earning under $15,000 were the least optimistic. Open-ended responses skewed pessimistic, with elevated mentions of prices and inflation, oil, gas, and grocery costs, alongside rising references to tariffs, trade, politics, the labor market, health and insurance, and war.

Other measures indicated growing unease. Average 12-month inflation expectations rose while the median eased. The share expecting higher interest rates dipped, and the stock-prices balance retreated. More respondents rated a recession as "very likely," and a larger share said the economy was "already in one."

By contrast, a separate consumer-sentiment gauge rose to 56.4 in January from 52.9 in December, a 6.6% monthly gain but a large year-over-year decline, highlighting divergent readings of household sentiment.

The Conference Board characterized the drop in near-term expectations as a recession signal and noted that increased caution on big-ticket and services spending could weigh on household demand in the months ahead.