ADP Jobs Report Shows Cooling in January
ADP Jobs Report signaled softer private hiring and missed forecasts, pushing traders to pare payroll expectations ahead of BLS nonfarm payrolls.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- ADP reported private payrolls rose 22,000 in January, below economists' forecasts.
- December was revised down to a 37,000 gain, reinforcing the slowdown.
- Annual pay growth remained elevated at 4.5% year-over-year.
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The ADP Jobs Report released on February 4, 2026, showed private-sector hiring slowed and fell short of economists’ forecasts, signaling a cooling trend ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls release on February 6, 2026.
ADP January Headline Figures and Sector Signals
ADP Research and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab reported that private-sector employment increased by 22,000 jobs in January, below economists’ expectations of 45,000 to 48,000. December’s gain was revised down to 37,000 jobs, reinforcing the slowdown in private hiring momentum.
Annual pay growth remained elevated at 4.5% year-over-year, indicating persistent wage pressure despite the moderation in hiring. Secondary reports noted a slowdown in service-sector hiring compared with relative stability in goods-producing industries.
ADP’s private payroll measure typically trails the government’s nonfarm payroll count by a consistent margin. Investors and economists will watch the upcoming government report to assess whether this softer ADP reading signals a broader weakening in payroll growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its January nonfarm payrolls data on February 6.
