Warsh Fed Chair Odds Rise After Trump Remarks
Warsh Fed Chair Odds rose after Trump's Jan. 16 signal on Kevin Hassett, boosting prediction-market prices and heavy volumes traders use to price policy risk.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Prediction markets raised Warsh odds to roughly 59-61% while Hassett fell to about 15-17%.
- Aggregate trading volumes exceeded $230 million across two major prediction-market platforms.
- Trump's signal to keep Hassett narrowed the field and accelerated nomination timing.
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Warsh Fed Chair Odds rose after President Trump's White House remarks on Jan. 16, 2026, signaling he preferred to keep Kevin Hassett in his current role. The comments triggered sharp moves in prediction-market prices and volumes that traders and investors monitor for policy risk.
Prediction Markets Shift Toward Warsh
Following the president’s remarks, prediction markets raised Kevin Warsh’s odds to roughly 59–61%, while Kevin Hassett’s chances dropped to about 15–17%, and Christopher Waller remained near 16%. Before the comments, Warsh’s odds had been around 41–44%, and Hassett’s about 35–38%. Aggregate trading volumes across two major platforms exceeded $230 million, with one clearing more than $35.5 million and the other over $194.7 million.
Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011, became the market favorite as participants factored his experience into the recalibrated leadership odds. Hassett, the White House National Economic Council director, saw his nomination prospects diminish after the president’s signal.
Timing and Confirmation Constraints
At a White House event, President Trump indicated he preferred to keep Hassett in his current role, signaling a political narrowing of the Fed chair race. He said he expects to make a decision this month. Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May 2026, setting a firm deadline for the nomination.
If the president selects a candidate outside the current Board of Governors, the choice would depend on an open governor seat and Senate confirmation. Stephen Miran’s term as governor expires Jan. 31, 2026, a relevant timing factor for any non-governor nominee. Both Fed chair and governor appointments require Senate approval.
Powell is currently under a Department of Justice criminal investigation related to the Eccles Building renovation, a legal development noted alongside the nomination process.
With the president signaling an imminent decision, traders and investors are likely to continue monitoring prediction markets for further shifts as the administration moves toward a formal nomination.
