U.S. Retail Sales Unchanged
U.S. retail sales stalled in December, missing expectations and leaving core measures flat and most categories down, signaling a consumer slowdown.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Retail sales were unchanged at $735.0 billion, missing economists' 0.4% forecast.
- Core retail sales ex-autos and ex-autos/gas were flat; the control group fell -0.1%.
- Eight of 13 retail categories declined, signaling a broader consumer slowdown and weaker near-term growth.
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U.S. retail sales in December 2025 were unchanged month-over-month, the U.S. Census Bureau reported on Feb. 10, 2026. The flat reading missed economists’ forecast of a 0.4% increase and coincided with declines in eight of 13 retail categories and weak core measures, signaling slower consumer spending.
December Retail Sales Metrics
The Census Bureau’s advance monthly sales release at 8:30 a.m. ET showed headline retail sales flat at 0.0% month-over-month, totaling $735 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis and not adjusted for inflation. This followed a 0.6% gain in November.
Core retail sales excluding autos were unchanged month-over-month, as were core sales excluding autos and gas. The control group, which excludes autos, gas, building materials, and food services, fell 0.1%. These core readings came in below consensus and included revisions to prior months.
On a broader scale, retail sales rose 2.4% from a year earlier in December. Total receipts for the October–December quarter increased 3.0% year-over-year (±0.4%), while full-year 2025 retail sales grew 3.7%.
Category Shifts and Outlook
Eight of 13 major retail categories declined in December. Clothing and accessories fell 0.7%, and miscellaneous retailers dropped 0.9%. Apparel, furniture, autos, and electronics also showed weakness. In contrast, building materials and garden stores gained 1.2%, and sporting goods sales rose.
Economists cited severe winter weather, persistent inflation, and tariff pressures as factors behind the stall. Spending patterns showed a K-shaped split, with weaker demand among lower-income households and more resilience at higher incomes. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects household spending will contribute more than two percentage points to fourth-quarter 2025 GDP growth, slightly below the prior quarter. Tax refunds are expected to support spending in coming months, though the boost may be spread out.
Markets and policymakers will focus on the inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures index due Feb. 20, 2026, for a price-adjusted view of household spending.
