U.S. Retail Sales March 2026 Rise on Gas Spike

U.S. retail sales in March 2026 rose as gasoline‑station purchases increased amid a sharp fuel‑price surge tied to the Iran war, supporting headline consumption even as core retail categories showed more muted gains.

March Retail Sales and Revisions

Advance retail and food‑services sales totaled $752.1 billion in March, up 1.7% month over month and 4.0% year over year, exceeding forecasts of a 1.4% monthly gain. Retail trade sales rose 1.9% from February and were 4.2% higher than a year earlier. Total sales for the first quarter of 2026 increased 3.7% year over year, with a margin of error of ±0.4%.

Revisions adjusted February’s monthly gain to 0.7% from 0.6% and January’s decline to 0.1% from 0.2%, slightly reshaping recent consumer spending trends.

Gasoline Prices and Retail Offsets

The surge in gasoline prices was the main driver of March’s headline increase. Pump costs jumped roughly 26.0% to 34.7% month over month after the Iran war began on February 28, 2026. Gasoline‑station sales accounted for a large share of the monthly lift, overstating strength across other retail categories.

Regular gasoline averaged $3.638 per gallon nationally in March and rose to $4.02 per gallon by month‑end. In San Francisco, prices climbed to $5.93 per gallon in the week ending March 30. These regional extremes intensified the impact on local consumers and added volatility to national retail figures.

IRS tax refunds averaged $3,521 in late March, an 11.1% increase from the prior year, providing support for non‑fuel retail purchases. A private card‑based retail monitor released April 14 showed sales excluding autos and gas rose about 0.4% month over month and roughly 6.6% year over year. A core measure excluding restaurants increased about 0.41% month to month and 7.1% year over year. Previews of the official advance estimate had expected ex‑vehicles and gas sales to rise about 0.2% month to month; the difference reflects varying methodologies between the official data and private card monitoring.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said gasoline prices have likely peaked and may ease slowly, potentially falling below $3 per gallon later in 2026 or in 2027 if geopolitical tensions ease. Economists expect many households will draw on savings to absorb higher fuel bills rather than sharply cut other spending. This dynamic could blunt immediate weakness in broad retail measures but leave discretionary categories such as clothing and sporting goods vulnerable in coming months.