Shell Q4 2025 Results Show Earnings Miss, Buyback

Shell plc (SHEL) reported weaker adjusted profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Feb. 5, 2026, even as the company highlighted strong full-year cash flow and announced a dividend increase alongside a new share-buyback program to expand capital returns.

Quarterly Earnings, Segments, and Guidance

Shell’s adjusted fourth-quarter profit was $3.26 billion, missing an analyst consensus near $3.5 billion and down about 40% from $5.43 billion in the prior quarter. The figure was roughly 12% lower than in the year-earlier period, a decline the company attributed to lower oil prices.

Segment results showed Integrated Gas with adjusted earnings of $1.661 billion and Upstream at $1.570 billion. Marketing contributed $578 million, while Chemicals & Products posted a $66 million loss. Renewables & Energy Solutions reported $131 million, and Corporate recorded a $567 million charge.

For full-year 2025, Shell generated $26 billion in free cash flow, with cash from operations of $42.9 billion, or $44.7 billion excluding working-capital movements. The company achieved cumulative structural cost savings of $5.1 billion since 2022, including $2.0 billion in 2025. Cash capital expenditure totaled $20.9 billion. Net debt at the end of the quarter was about $45.7 billion, excluding $16.8 billion in leases, with gearing at 20.7%.

Shell set 2026 cash-capex guidance at $20–22 billion. First-quarter operational guidance includes Integrated Gas production of 920–980 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d) and LNG liquefaction of 7.4–8.0 million tonnes. Upstream production is guided to 1,700–1,900 kboe/d, reflecting the Adura joint venture impact. Marketing sales are expected between 2,550 and 2,750 thousand barrels per day (kb/d). Chemicals & Products refinery utilization is forecast at 90–98%, with chemicals plant utilization at 79–87%. Corporate adjusted earnings are guided to a loss range of $0.6 billion to $0.4 billion. The company directed investors to a progress update on its March 2025 Capital Markets Day targets at www.shell.com/2025-progress-on-cmd25.html.

Shareholder Returns and Buyback Program

Shell announced a 4% increase in its interim dividend to $0.372 per ordinary share as part of its capital returns package.

The company also launched a $3.5 billion share buyback program on Feb. 5, 2026, authorizing the repurchase and cancellation of up to 400 million ordinary shares over roughly three months. The buyback is split evenly between London trading venues and Dutch venues, with completion targeted before the first-quarter 2026 results and no later than May 1, 2026. It will be conducted under UK Listing Rules Chapter 9 and the EU Market Abuse Regulation using irrevocable non-discretionary broker contracts. The program’s stated purpose is to reduce the company’s issued share capital.

Despite the quarterly earnings shortfall, Shell’s strong annual cash generation and structural savings supported the decision to raise the dividend and initiate the buyback. Management maintained 2026 capital-spending plans and balance-sheet targets, signaling that capital returns remain a priority amid a softer commodity environment.