Pfizer 2026 Guidance Forecasts Lower Profits
Pfizer 2026 guidance forecasts lower revenue and adjusted EPS as COVID sales and LOE cut the top line, leaving results below Street estimates.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- 2026 revenue guidance set at $59.5-$62.5 billion and adjusted EPS $2.80-$3.00.
- Guidance excludes share repurchases and assumes stable margins with a higher tax rate.
- COVID-19 sales and LOE each reduce revenue by roughly $1.5 billion.
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Pfizer Inc. (PFE) on Dec. 16, 2025, maintained its 2025 adjusted EPS outlook while issuing 2026 guidance that projects lower revenue and adjusted EPS due to declining COVID-19 product sales and loss of exclusivity. The forecast falls short of Wall Street expectations.
Guidance for 2025 and 2026
Pfizer revised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to approximately $62.0 billion, down from a prior range of $61.0 billion to $64.0 billion issued in early November. It reaffirmed adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $3.00 to $3.15, based on weighted-average shares outstanding of about 5.7 billion.
For 2026, the company projected revenue of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.80 to $3.00. This guidance assumes stable gross and operating margins, a higher tax rate, no share repurchases, and weighted-average shares of about 5.7 billion. The forecast sits below Wall Street consensus estimates of $61.6 billion in revenue and $3.05 in adjusted EPS.
Revenue Drivers and Cost Outlook
The 2026 revenue range reflects an expected $1.5 billion decline in COVID-19 product sales compared with 2025 and an additional $1.5 billion negative impact from products losing exclusivity. Excluding these factors, Pfizer expects operational revenue growth of about 4% at the midpoint. These headwinds combine to reduce next year’s top line by roughly $3.0 billion, explaining the gap with consensus.
Pfizer guided adjusted selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses for 2026 to $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion and adjusted research and development (R&D) expenses to $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion, totaling $23.0 billion to $25.0 billion. This reflects progress on a cost-realignment program. The company plans to prioritize R&D investments in programs including PF-08634404 and the Metsera portfolio.
Pfizer flagged risks that could affect results, including uncertain COVID-19 demand, clinical trial outcomes, competition, tariffs, and supply disruptions. The company said, "2025 was a year of strong execution and strategic progress for Pfizer."
