Nvidia Q4 Earnings: Analysts Split on Revenue Outlook

NVIDIA faces divergent analyst expectations ahead of its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings due after the U.S. market close on Feb. 25, 2026. Company guidance and some market models project materially higher revenue than other consensus estimates, complicating margin and valuation outlooks.

Earnings Timing and Guidance

The fiscal quarter ended Jan. 25, 2026. At its Q3 briefing, NVIDIA guided Q4 revenue at $65 billion, plus or minus 2%, with GAAP gross margin around 74.8%, plus or minus 0.5%, and operating expenses near $6.7 billion. In Q3, the company reported revenue of $57.0 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, including Data Center sales of $51.2 billion, up 66%. Q3 revenue exceeded guidance by $3.0 billion and showed sequential growth of $10.0 billion versus the $8.0 billion forecast.

Divergent Consensus and Data Center Outlook

Market consensus on Q4 revenue varies sharply. One model centers on $57.0 billion, treating near-term demand as a continuation of recent trends. Another projects $66.1 billion, implying 68.0% year-over-year growth and earnings per share of $1.53, a 72.0% increase from the prior year. Other estimates cluster near $65.6–65.7 billion, roughly 67.0% growth, sitting between these extremes. The company’s guidance aligns with the higher range.

Estimates for Blackwell architecture revenue in Q4 are widely dispersed, with a midpoint near $33.5 billion and a range from $7.1 billion to $53.8 billion across 15 sources. Long-term Data Center revenue models project about $311.0 billion for fiscal 2027.

Consensus forecasts Data Center gross margins at 76.4% in fiscal 2027, down from roughly 78.0% in prior years, while operating margins are expected to rise to 68.1% from 63.8% in fiscal 2026. Analysts highlight the timing of the Blackwell ramp, Rubin production starting in the second half of 2026, China shipments, and memory supply constraints as key variables.

Valuation models differ on sensitivity to these factors. One projects more than $2.0 billion upside to the company’s guidance and fiscal 2027 earnings per share near $9.57, implying a 26x price-to-earnings multiple at a $250 share target. Others assume a fiscal 2027 revenue cohort of about $93.7 billion for the B-series and price-to-earnings ratios ranging from 19x to 29x. Market expectations for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 forecast revenue near $71.0 billion, about 61.0% above the prior year.

Estimates for Data Center demand peaked in November 2025 before moderating. Analyst previews published in late February refreshed consensus profiles ahead of the report. No regulatory filings, approvals, or merger-and-acquisition activity are noted in the materials reviewed. The figures reflect sell-side models and consensus feeds rather than direct company filings or SEC transcripts.