Nvidia Earnings to Shape Tech Rally
Nvidia earnings will focus traders on consensus revenue and Blackwell forecasts, shaping near-term tech rally positioning, liquidity, and options flows.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Consensus Q4 revenue rests at $57.0 billion and frames expectations for management commentary.
- Data Center revenue consensus $60.1 billion is the pivotal test of the AI-led rally.
- Blackwell B-series consensus $33.5 billion signals wide analyst disagreement on ramp timing.
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Nvidia (NVDA) will release fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings after the market close on February 25, 2026. Traders are focused on consensus forecasts for the company’s Data Center revenue, which could determine whether the recent tech rally continues amid fading AI concerns.
Earnings Timing and Market Context
Nvidia’s investor-relations page lists a webcast for the fiscal fourth-quarter results at 2:00 PM PT (5:00 PM ET) on February 25. A consensus preview posted on February 23 showed expectations for strong Data Center performance. Over the past 72 hours, the Nasdaq 100 led a U.S. stock rally as investors awaited the report and management commentary for signals on demand and guidance.
Analyst Consensus and Key Projections
The consensus projects total revenue of $57.0 billion for the quarter, with Data Center revenue expected at $60.1 billion. This forecast ranges from $56.9 billion to $62.6 billion and exceeds the June 2025 estimate of $52.7 billion. Analysts also anticipate Data Center gross profit of $46.4 billion, about 15% higher than prior estimates.
The Blackwell B-series forecast, based on 15 sources, shows a wide Q4 revenue range from $7.1 billion to $53.8 billion, with a consensus of $33.5 billion. Analysts expect the unit’s revenue to ramp to $93.7 billion in fiscal 2027 from roughly $7.1 billion the prior year, reflecting debate over the rollout timing and addressable market.
For fiscal 2027, Data Center revenue consensus stands at $311.0 billion. Gross margin is projected at 76.4%, down from 78% in fiscal 2024 and 2025, while operating margin is expected to rise to 68.1% from 63.8%. The price-to-earnings ratio consensus for fiscal 2027 is 24 times, within a 19x to 29x range, reflecting moderated estimates since the November quarter.
Investors will closely watch management’s outlook during the webcast for details on the Blackwell ramp, total addressable market size, and broader growth assumptions. These comments will provide the clearest near-term indication of whether Data Center momentum can be sustained.
