November 2025 CPI Rises 2.7%
Delayed BLS November 2025 CPI came in cooler than forecasts, giving traders and Fed officials a fresh data point as policymakers weigh rate cuts.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Delayed BLS release showed November CPI at 2.7% year over year, cooler than economists expected.
- Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year with services and shelter remaining the largest contributors.
- The report supplies a retroactive input as policymakers weigh slowing or pausing the 2025 rate-cut cycle.
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The November 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year over year, cooler than economists expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said in a Dec. 18 release. The report, delayed by a government shutdown, provides fresh inflation data as Federal Reserve officials consider the pace of rate cuts.
BLS Release and Data Gap
The BLS confirmed it did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. As a result, the agency published a seasonally adjusted 0.2% increase covering the two months from September to November instead of the usual monthly change. October data are marked as missing in the official tables. The September CPI had been released in late October, and the BLS used some non-survey sources to reconstruct parts of the series.
Inflation Composition and Fed Context
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.6% over the 12 months ending in November 2025. Services prices increased 3.2%, led by shelter, which rose 3.0%. Goods prices advanced 1.8%. Food costs climbed 2.6%, with food at home up 1.9% and food away from home rising 3.7%. Energy prices increased 4.2%, driven by a 7.4% rise in energy services and a 1.2% gain in energy commodities; gasoline rose 0.9%, and fuel oil jumped 11.3%.
Other notable 12-month increases included household furnishings and operations up 4.6%, other goods and services up 3.9%, used cars and trucks up 3.6%, and medical care services up 3.3%. Transportation services rose 1.7%, new vehicles 0.6%, and apparel 0.2%.
Regionally, the Northeast saw a 3.1% increase, with New England up 2.7% and the Middle Atlantic 3.2%. The Midwest and West each rose 3.0%, the South 2.2%, and the Pacific division 3.2%. Among major metropolitan areas, Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim posted a 3.6% gain, New York–Newark–Jersey City 3.0%, and Chicago–Naperville–Elgin 2.5%.
Economists had forecast roughly 3.0–3.1% year-over-year inflation. The delayed report came in cooler than those expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.5%–3.75% range at its Dec. 10 meeting, marking the third consecutive reduction. Officials faced limited government data at that meeting, as employment reports for October and November and November inflation data were unavailable. The November CPI now offers a retroactive input as policymakers weigh whether to continue, pause, or slow the 2025 rate-cut cycle. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that “our two goals are a bit in tension,” referring to elevated inflation alongside a cooling labor market.
