Instacart Q3 Results Show Growth, Cautious Q4
Instacart Q3 results showed solid growth and an expanded buyback while management issued cautious Q4 guidance that may tighten trader positioning.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Q3 revenue was $939M with GTV $9.17B and 83.4M orders, producing $278M adjusted EBITDA.
- Management expanded the share-repurchase program by $1.5B and began a $250M accelerated buyback.
- Management flagged EBT/SNAP funding uncertainty and competition as reasons for cautious Q4 guidance.
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Instacart’s third-quarter results on Nov. 10, 2025, showed continued growth and led management to expand its share-repurchase program by $1.5 billion while launching a $250 million accelerated buyback. Despite strong demand, executives issued cautious guidance for the fourth quarter, citing broad macroeconomic pressures.
Quarterly Performance and Strategic Drivers
Instacart reported third-quarter revenue of $939 million, up 10.2% year-over-year, with gross transaction value (GTV) reaching $9.17 billion. Adjusted EBITDA, a proxy for operating profit, was $278 million, and orders rose 14% to 83.4 million. Transaction revenue totaled $670 million, and advertising and other revenue reached $269 million, each increasing 10% year-over-year.
The company attributed growth in orders and GTV to rising user numbers and higher order frequency. However, average order value declined 4% due to a larger share of restaurant orders and a $10 basket minimum for Instacart+ members, which weighed on per-order spending.
Strategic partnerships with Kroger, Albertsons, and Target supported omnichannel integration and customer retention. Instacart also credited AI-powered personalization and improved price transparency with reducing cart abandonment. Its health-focused offerings under Instacart Health continued to diversify revenue streams.
Guidance and Capital Allocation
For the fourth quarter, Instacart projected GTV between $9.45 billion and $9.6 billion, implying 9.0–11.0% year-over-year growth. Advertising revenue was forecast to rise 6.0–9.0%, and adjusted EBITDA was expected between $285 million and $295 million.
Management noted strong demand through October and ongoing enterprise momentum but flagged macroeconomic risks, including uncertainties around EBT/SNAP funding and intensifying competition. This cautious outlook placed guidance slightly below consensus estimates.
Alongside the results, Instacart expanded its share-repurchase program by $1.5 billion and initiated a $250 million accelerated buyback, signaling confidence in its operational momentum despite the guarded outlook.
No material regulatory actions, approvals, or mergers and acquisitions were disclosed for the quarter.
