GE Vernova Stock Climbs After Guidance Upgrade

GE Vernova stock rose after the company on Dec. 9, 2025 unveiled an upgraded multi-year financial outlook, doubled its quarterly dividend, and expanded its share buyback program, citing stronger backlog and margin improvement as the drivers of the revision.

Upgraded Multi-Year Guidance and Segment Outlook

On Dec. 9, 2025, GE Vernova raised its 2028 targets, setting revenue at $52.0 billion, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.0%, and cumulative free cash flow for 2025–2028 above $22.0 billion, with about $10.0 billion allocated to capital expenditures and research and development. CEO Scott Strazik said, "We are in the early chapters of an incredible value creation opportunity."

The company reaffirmed 2025 guidance with revenue of $36.0–$37.0 billion, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.0%–9.0%, and free cash flow of $3.5–$4.0 billion. It issued 2026 guidance projecting revenue of $41.0–$42.0 billion, an 11.0%–13.0% margin, and free cash flow of $4.5–$5.0 billion.

The segment outlook to 2028 targets high-teens compound annual growth rates for Power and Electrification, each aiming for about 22.0% adjusted EBITDA margins. The Wind segment is expected to decline in revenue by low double digits, with annual EBITDA losses near $400 million and a margin around 6.0%.

The guidance excludes the announced acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in Prolec GE, expected to close by mid-2026. Post-close, the acquisition is projected to add roughly $0.8–$1.1 billion in adjusted EBITDA annually.

Management said the outlook incorporates current tariffs and inflation. Margin expansion through 2028 will be driven by price and volume leverage from strong demand, notably power demand linked to data centers, productivity gains, cost reductions, increased R&D and operating expenses to support capacity expansions, higher downpayments on rising orders, and improved working-capital velocity.

Dividend Increase, Buyback Expansion, and Backlog Growth

The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, doubling the prior payout. The dividend is payable Feb. 2, 2026, to shareholders of record on Jan. 5, 2026. The company increased its share-repurchase authorization to $10.0 billion from $6.0 billion, with $3.3 billion already executed under the prior program. It committed to returning at least one-third of cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2028 through dividends and buybacks.

Management set a total backlog target of about $200.0 billion by year-end 2028, up from $135.0 billion as of the third quarter of 2025. The Electrification backlog is expected to double from roughly $30.0 billion to $60.0 billion by 2028. The company reported 18 gigawatts of gas-turbine contracts signed in the fourth quarter to date and a combined slot-reservation and backlog target of 80 gigawatts for year-end 2025.

The investor presentation outlined a services-led extension of the cash-flow profile, with installed baseload gas-turbine capacity targeted to double from about 200 gigawatts to roughly 400 gigawatts. Heavy-duty aeroderivative services revenue is expected to grow from about $1.0 billion in 2025 to nearly $4.0 billion by 2035, supporting longer-term free cash flow.

Shares rose more than 8% in premarket trading on Dec. 10, 2025, with market commentary linking the move to stronger demand for power equipment from data centers.