Flutter Entertainment Fourth-Quarter Earnings Miss; Cuts Out

Flutter Entertainment reported disappointing Q4 earnings in a press release on Feb. 26, 2026, as slowing U.S. customer engagement led management to issue 2026 guidance below analysts' forecasts and signal moderation in handle growth into 2026.

Quarter Results and 2026 Guidance

Flutter's fourth-quarter revenue rose 25.0% year over year to $4.7 billion but fell short of the $4.85 billion–$4.97 billion consensus range. Management attributed the shortfall to moderating activity in the U.S., which also underpinned a more cautious outlook for the year ahead.

Adjusted earnings per share declined 41.0% to $1.74, missing the consensus range of $1.57–$1.99. Adjusted EBITDA increased 27.0% to $832 million, reflecting operating leverage despite weaker engagement metrics.

Net income dropped sharply to $10 million from $156 million a year earlier after a $556 million non-cash impairment related to regulatory changes in India. This charge was the main drag on full-year net income.

For fiscal 2025, group revenue rose 17.0% to $15.9 billion, and adjusted EBITDA increased 21.0% to $2.9 billion, contrasting with the impairment-driven net income decline.

Management set 2026 guidance with a revenue midpoint of $18.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA midpoint of $3.0 billion, both below prior consensus of about $19.3 billion. The trimmed outlook reflects softer U.S. customer engagement and unfavorable sports results.

U.S. revenue guidance was $7.8 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion, incorporating a $70 million EBITDA loss from new states and prediction-markets investment losses near the upper end of a $200 million–$300 million range. Management expects about 22.0% of full-year revenue and 13.0% of EBITDA in the first quarter.

International revenue guidance was $10.6 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 billion, factoring in a planned $70 million investment in Brazil, higher U.K. taxes, and the group’s exit from India. Trading through Feb. 22, 2026 reflected unfavorable sports results influencing the forecast.

U.S. Trends and Product Expansion

U.S. revenue rose 33.0% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA reached $922 million, up 90.0%. FanDuel held a 41.0% share of sportsbook gross win and 28.0% of iGaming gross win, supporting margin expansion despite weakening engagement.

Management said high U.S. gross margins in the second half and bookmaker-friendly NFL results dampened engagement heading into 2026. Handle growth moderated to 3.0% in the quarter, while promotional spend rose to 5.8% of revenue, up 180 basis points year over year. Average monthly players increased 3.2% to 15,072, though the company acknowledged some market-share loss to competitors.

FanDuel Predicts launched at the end of Q4 2025, offering sports markets in 18 states and non-sports prediction markets across all 50 states. The company described prediction markets as a significant incremental growth opportunity, though the rollout has not materially affected near-term trends. A December 2025 launch in Missouri attracted customers equal to about 5.0% of the state’s population within 30 days.

Regional and regulatory developments included the $556 million impairment in India, re-registration challenges in Brazil with a planned $70 million investment for 2026, and the Missouri launch.

The quarter’s mixed operational gains and below-consensus 2026 guidance suggest only modest profit expansion next year. U.S. customer engagement and the success of new products, especially prediction markets, will be key to whether profit momentum accelerates.