Fed Chair Candidates Warsh Leads as Hassett Faces Pushback
Fed chair candidates Warsh led prediction markets after Trump's shortlist, and Hassett stressed Fed independence amid pushback, shifting trader odds.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Prediction-market odds for Kevin Warsh had risen to 42%, a 27-point jump.
- Hassett had said he would convey the president's views but they would carry no weight.
- The market move signaled traders assigned higher probability to Warsh's nomination.
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Fed chair candidates Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett emerged as President Trump's leading picks when he named them in an interview on Dec. 12, 2025. By Dec. 15, prediction markets showed Warsh gaining ground while Hassett faced internal pushback and emphasized Fed independence.
Trump Names Two Contenders
On Dec. 12, 2025, President Trump identified Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as his top contenders for Federal Reserve chair. Two days later, Hassett said he would convey the president’s views to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) but insisted those views would carry no weight in committee decisions.
Market and Political Reactions
By Dec. 15 at 10:16 a.m. ET, prediction-market odds for Warsh surged to 42%, a 27-point jump that moved him to the front of trader pricing. Shortly after, reports indicated that high-level allies of the president expressed concern over Hassett’s perceived closeness to Trump, creating political headwinds for his candidacy. At 11:05 a.m. ET, Moody’s economist Mark Zandi described both Warsh and Hassett as reasonably good choices for Fed chair. The prediction-market move signals that traders assign a higher probability to Warsh as the likely nominee, providing an early indicator for investors assessing prospective Fed leadership.
