February 2026 Jobs Report Misses Forecasts
February 2026 jobs report showed payrolls fell and downward revisions widened shortfall, prompting traders to reassess labor and inflation expectations.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- BLS release showed total nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 in February 2026.
- Downward revisions trimmed prior two months by 69,000 versus consensus.
- Average hourly earnings rose $0.15 (0.4%) to $37.32 and unemployment edged to 4.4%.
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The February 2026 jobs report showed an unexpected decline in U.S. payrolls, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on March 6, 2026, alongside a slight rise in the unemployment rate and continued wage gains.
Labor Market Overview
The BLS Employment Situation release showed total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 92,000 in February 2026, missing the median forecast of a 60,000 gain. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4 percent, with 7.6 million people unemployed. The labor force participation rate held at 62.0 percent, and the employment-population ratio was 59.3 percent. The average workweek for private nonfarm employees remained steady at 34.3 hours.
Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm payrolls rose by 15 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $37.32, marking a 3.8 percent increase year over year.
Sector Changes and Revisions
Health care employment declined by 28,000, driven by a 37,000-job loss in offices of physicians, primarily due to strike activity that reversed a large January gain. The information sector and transportation and warehousing each shed 11,000 jobs, while social assistance added 9,000 positions.
Federal government payrolls fell by 10,000 in February and remain down 330,000, or 11.0 percent, since their October 2024 peak.
The report included downward revisions to prior months: December 2025 payrolls were revised to a loss of 17,000 from a previously reported gain of 48,000, and January 2026 payrolls were revised to an increase of 126,000 from 130,000. These changes reduced the two-month total by 69,000, widening the gap versus the pre-report consensus.
The household survey incorporated 2026 Census Bureau population updates delayed by last year’s federal shutdown. These adjustments lowered the male 25–54 population share and raised the female 65-plus cohort, with minimal net effect on unemployment and no impact on month-to-month February comparisons.
The next BLS Employment Situation report is scheduled for April 3, 2026, at 08:30 ET.
