Dutch Bros Q4 2025 Earnings Beat Estimates

Dutch Bros Inc. said on Feb. 12, 2026, its fourth-quarter results topped forecasts and it set 2026 revenue and adjusted-EBITDA targets while accelerating store openings and expanding a food program that management said will weigh on near-term margins.

Quarterly Results and Guidance

Dutch Bros reported fourth-quarter revenue of $443.6 million, a 29.4% increase year over year that exceeded the consensus estimate of $424.7 million. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose to $0.17, beating the $0.10 forecast and up from $0.07 a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter reached $72.6 million, surpassing the $60.1 million estimate. System same-store sales grew 7.7%, driven by a 5.4% increase in transactions, while company-operated same-store sales rose 9.7% on a 7.6% transaction gain.

For full-year 2025, revenue totaled $1.64 billion, up 28%, with adjusted EBITDA of $303 million, a 31% increase. System-wide average unit volumes (AUVs) hit a record $2.1 million, and system same-shop sales grew 5.6%, including a 3.2% transaction lift. Company-operated contribution margin expanded about 400 basis points since 2022 to 28.9%. Management said, "Our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results demonstrate the strong momentum we have in delivering our long-term strategy."

The company guided 2026 revenue to $2.0–$2.03 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $355–$365 million. It expects system same-shop sales growth of roughly 3–5% and plans at least 181 new system shop openings, including conversions from its recent Clutch Coffee Bar acquisition. Capital expenditures are projected at $270–$290 million, with about 30 shop openings expected in the first quarter. Management anticipates another 70 basis points of adjusted selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) leverage while keeping adjusted SG&A dollars flat through the year. The long-term store target remains 2,029 locations by 2029, with a contribution-margin goal near 30%.

Expansion, Margins, and Strategic Initiatives

Dutch Bros accelerated its expansion in 2025, opening 154 shops—a 16% increase—including 55 in the fourth quarter alone. Of those, 52 were company-operated across 17 states, bringing the system to 1,136 shops in 25 states and marking its entry into North Carolina. The company plans at least 181 new openings in 2026, including about 20 conversions from the Clutch Coffee Bar acquisition, which added 20 locations across North and South Carolina for approximately $20 million. Conversions are expected in the second and third quarters of 2026, with capital requirements described as relatively light.

The food program expanded from four trial sites in Phoenix a year earlier to more than 300 shops across 11 states by the end of 2025, with a systemwide rollout planned by year-end 2026. Early adopters have shown about a 4% comparable sales lift. Beverage, food, and packaging costs accounted for 27% of company-operated shop revenue in the fourth quarter, a 160-basis-point increase year over year. Management attributed this primarily to higher coffee prices and the broader food rollout, expecting elevated coffee costs to pressure margins early in 2026 even as the food program adds revenue.

Digital and loyalty initiatives remain key growth drivers. Order Ahead penetration reached roughly 14% systemwide, with a walk-up shop opened in downtown Los Angeles in late November 2025 becoming a top performer, posting an Order Ahead mix more than three times the system average. The Dutch Rewards loyalty program counted 15 million members. Adjusted SG&A was $65 million in the fourth quarter, equal to 14.7% of revenue, with about 140 basis points of SG&A leverage achieved in 2025 and an additional 70 basis points expected in 2026. The company added roughly $3 million of net cash in the fourth quarter compared with the prior quarter and finished the year consistently building cash ahead of schedule.