Copper Prices Surge to Record Highs

Copper prices surged to record highs on January 29, 2026, as strong Chinese buying and a softer U.S. dollar combined with geopolitical tensions and demand from AI and energy-transition projects. The rally produced outsized daily and year-over-year gains, prompting disagreement among analysts over its sustainability.

Record Highs and Price Action

Comex copper futures reached $6.58 per pound on January 29, 2026, rising nearly 7% that day and positioning the March contract for its highest close since 1972. The price stood about 46.6% above its level a year earlier.

Earlier in January, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price hit $13,387.50 per metric ton, marking a 22.0% rally from below $11,000 per ton in late November 2025. The previous nominal peak was $4.89 per pound in March 2022, while 2026 opened near $5.20 per pound.

Gold and silver also reached record levels, with April gold settling at $5,340.20 per ounce and March silver at $115.50 per ounce.

Drivers, Inventories, and Outlook

The rally reflected several factors: unusually strong Chinese investor buying—the largest in more than 16 years, increasing positions by up to 11%—a weaker U.S. dollar, tariff threats from the U.S. president, and rising industrial demand linked to AI data centers and energy-transition projects. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on an upbeat U.S. economy also supported metals buying.

Physical inventories rose sharply. Combined warehouse holdings in Shanghai, London, and New York exceeded 900,000 metric tons as of January 28, 2026. COMEX inventories topped 500,000 tons, and LME stocks have trended higher since May 2025.

Major banks diverged on the outlook. Goldman Sachs Research expected LME copper to hold near $13,000 per ton in the first quarter of 2026, easing to about $11,000 per ton by year-end, with a global surplus of roughly 300,000 tons for the year, up from a prior estimate of 160,000 tons. J.P. Morgan projected a peak near $5.67 per pound in the second quarter and forecast a refined-copper deficit of about 330,000 tons. Bank of America’s model placed 2026 nearer $5.13 per pound and 2027 around $6.12 per pound.

Market participants flagged risks that could limit gains, including margin tightening in futures markets, a sharp reversal after the rapid rally, a global economic slowdown, new supply arrivals, and escalating trade conflicts.

An anticipated U.S. refined-copper tariff decision, proposing a 15% levy, is expected by mid-2026. This policy could encourage U.S. stockpiling near 600,000 tons in 2026, down from an earlier estimate of about 750,000 tons, potentially reshaping physical flows and near-term market balances. Meanwhile, China’s easing of debt caps on homebuilders may support copper demand.