ASML Export Restrictions Pressure Shares
ASML export restrictions proposed by U.S. lawmakers would curb DUV tool sales to China and pressured shares on April 7, heightening revenue and EPS risk.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Bill would extend export controls to ASML DUV lithography sold to China.
- ASML forecasts China sales at 20% of 2026 revenue, mostly tied to DUV tools.
- Analysts warned sales could fall in single digits and EPS might drop up to 10%.
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Bipartisan U.S. lawmakers introduced export restrictions targeting ASML’s deep-ultraviolet (DUV) lithography sales to China last week, prompting a share decline on April 7, 2026, amid analyst warnings of potential revenue and earnings per share (EPS) downside.
Bill Targets DUV Lithography Machines
The legislation, introduced on or before April 1, 2026, aims to extend export controls to ASML’s DUV immersion lithography tools, closing a gap left after earlier restrictions on extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) systems. DUV machines produce chips at 7 nanometers and above and are widely used in China’s domestic semiconductor manufacturing. One source referenced the proposal as the Match Act.
The bill would require enforcement by the Dutch government, which has not commented on the U.S. proposal.
Market Reaction and Analyst Estimates
ASML shares fell between 2.6% and 4.7% on April 7, 2026, before partially recovering to close about 4.1% lower at 1,114 euros in Amsterdam by 1100 GMT, wiping billions off the company’s market value.
ASML forecasts China sales will represent 20.0% of total 2026 revenue, with most exposure tied to DUV sales. The company declined to comment on the proposed legislation.
Analysts offered varied estimates of the financial impact. One firm projected a single-digit percentage decline in sales. Another estimated EPS could fall by up to 10.0%, noting that non-Chinese chipmakers would expand capacity but likely would not fully offset lost China demand, potentially worsening global chip capacity constraints. A third described the outlook as negative.
ASML remains the dominant supplier of DUV equipment but faces competition from Nikon in Japan and SMEE in China. If enacted and enforced by the Dutch government, the proposal would mark the first new ASML-specific restrictions since September 2024.
