ASML 2026 Guidance Rises on AI Demand
ASML 2026 guidance rose after Q1 as AI orders prompted an outlook upgrade and larger dividend, boosting chip-equipment capex flows amid export risks.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- ASML raised 2026 guidance after record AI-driven orders accelerated customer capacity expansion.
- Q1 gross margin reached 53.0%, at the high end of the quarter's guidance.
- Guidance bandwidth was structured to accommodate potential outcomes of China export-control discussions.
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ASML raised its 2026 guidance on April 15, 2026, citing accelerating AI-driven demand that is prompting customers to expedite capacity expansions. The company also announced a larger dividend, signaling stronger capital spending by chipmakers.
Q1 Results and Updated Outlook
ASML reported first-quarter total net sales of €8.8 billion, within its guidance range, with a gross margin of 53.0%, at the high end of expectations. Net income reached €2.8 billion, and basic earnings per share were €7.15.
The company raised its full-year 2026 total net sales outlook to €36.0 billion to €40.0 billion, up from €34.0 billion to €39.0 billion, and lifted its gross-margin target to 51.0%–53.0%. Management expects 2026 to be another growth year across all business segments. Analysts had anticipated sales near the prior top of the guidance range, around €37.7 billion.
For the second quarter, ASML set total net sales guidance at €8.4 billion to €9.0 billion with a gross-margin band of 51.0% to 52.0%. The company forecasted research and development expenses of about €1.2 billion and selling, general, and administrative expenses near €0.3 billion, reflecting ongoing investment amid rising volumes.
The board increased the 2025 ordinary dividend by 17% to €7.50 per share. Three interim dividends of €1.60 were paid in 2025 and 2026, and the board proposed a final dividend of €2.70. Management linked the larger payout to a stronger near-term cash-flow outlook supported by the upgraded guidance.
AI Demand and Export-Control Risks
The guidance boost reflects record order intake driven by AI chip demand and related infrastructure investments. Customers including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are expanding capacity under long-term agreements. ASML President and CEO Christophe Fouquet said, "Demand for chips is outpacing supply."
These orders and multiyear deals indicate elevated capital spending as chipmakers add capacity and upgrade installed bases. This dynamic is driving higher near-term shipments and longer-term demand visibility for lithography systems, supporting the company’s upward revision to revenue and margin guidance.
ASML also noted that its 2026 guidance range accounts for potential outcomes of ongoing export-control discussions, specifically flagging China export restrictions as a possible headwind to equipment shipments. The company structured the outlook to maintain flexibility against policy developments while reflecting stronger demand.
Together, the guidance upgrade, record orders, and increased dividend suggest a pickup in chipmaker capital spending that could sustain demand for lithography systems through 2026, reinforcing a stronger capital expenditure cycle for suppliers tied to AI-driven semiconductor production.
