Apple Earnings Preview: iPhone Strength, AI Scrutiny

Apple Inc. (AAPL) approaches its earnings release on Jan. 29, 2026, after the market close, with strong iPhone sales and recent AI developments—including a planned Gemini integration for Siri—shaping expectations for the holiday quarter and investor focus.

Earnings Outlook and iPhone Sales Momentum

Apple Investor Relations confirmed the fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings release and conference call for Jan. 29, covering the October–December 2025 holiday quarter. Wall Street consensus projects revenue of $138.4 billion and diluted earnings per share of $2.68, reflecting about 11% year-over-year growth.

Analysts forecast iPhone revenue between $78 billion and $80 billion, roughly 12% higher year over year. This strength is driven by demand for Pro models and an installed base of approximately 315 million devices eligible for upgrades, supporting expectations for sustained iPhone sales momentum. Services revenue is expected to reach about $30 billion, up roughly 14%, contributing to the quarter’s revenue mix even if hardware growth slows.

Market research indicates Apple held more than 20% share in China in the fourth quarter of 2025, suggesting a possible regional rebound that could influence hardware sales. Broker notes include price targets near $320 and $315, reflecting differing views on the iPhone cycle and how quickly AI recognition will translate into revenue.

Analysts warn that rising memory costs could pressure margins in mid-to-late 2026, while intensified competition in China remains a potential headwind for hardware revenue.

AI Strategy and Leadership Changes

Apple plans to integrate Google’s Gemini models into Siri, a configuration often called Siri Gemini. The company and analysts expect a Siri refresh in spring 2026, followed by further updates at the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June.

In December 2025, Apple consolidated AI leadership under Craig Federighi, moving Siri oversight into the software division after internal friction delayed AI development. Some analysts view 2026 as a pivotal year for Apple’s AI strategy, projecting a potential valuation uplift tied to AI execution and the upcoming Siri refresh.

Investors and analysts express skepticism about whether Apple’s capital spending will match that of larger AI competitors, which could slow the rollout of new AI features in Siri.

The Jan. 29 earnings release will be closely watched for signs that iPhone momentum, Services growth, and early AI integration can sustain revenue expansion and manage margin pressures through 2026, with the spring Siri refresh and WWDC serving as key milestones for evaluating the company’s AI roadmap.