ADP Jobs Report Signals Hiring Weakness
ADP jobs report showed a surprise November payroll decline, pressuring risk positioning and prompting traders to await the delayed BLS employment release.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- ADP reported private payrolls fell 32,000 in November, missing economist consensus for 10,000.
- Small businesses bore the brunt while firms with 50+ employees added 90,000 jobs.
- Annual pay growth stayed at 4.4% y/y and the BLS employment report was delayed to Dec. 16.
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The ADP jobs report on Dec. 3 showed a surprise decline in private-sector employment, reversing the prior month's upward revision and missing economists' forecasts. The report highlights renewed weakness in hiring as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) delayed its employment release to Dec. 16.
Private Hiring Declines and Wage Growth
U.S. private-sector employment fell by 32,000 jobs in November, missing the consensus forecast for a 10,000 increase. ADP revised its October estimate up to 47,000 jobs in the same release. November marked the third monthly payroll decline in four months, signaling cooling hiring momentum.
Small businesses bore the brunt of job cuts, while firms with 50 or more employees added 90,000 workers. This divergence created a pronounced split in the data, with gains at larger firms offsetting losses concentrated among smaller ones.
Annual pay growth remained elevated at 4.4% year-over-year, reflecting wage resilience amid slowing hiring. The report described first-time unemployment benefit applications as consistent with a "no hire, no fire" dynamic, indicating a pause in net hiring across parts of the private sector.
The report was produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. It noted that the longest government shutdown in U.S. history delayed the BLS employment report, limiting official data availability and making ADP’s private-sector snapshot an earlier indicator of November payroll trends.
Market participants will look to the government’s employment figures on Dec. 16 for confirmation of the patterns ADP highlighted.
