ADP Jobs Report: Private Payrolls Lose Ground

The ADP jobs report on Nov. 11, 2025, showed U.S. private-sector payrolls contracted in the four weeks ended Oct. 25, marking the first sustained multi-week losses since 2020. This aligns with Wall Street forecasts projecting steeper declines in nonfarm payrolls and a higher unemployment rate.

Private Payrolls Contracted

The ADP Research Institute’s National Employment Report found private-sector payrolls fell by an average of about 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks through Oct. 25, 2025. The report covers only private employment and excludes government jobs. This marks the first multi-week private-sector contraction since the late-2020 downturn. ADP did not provide forward-looking guidance in the release.

ADP’s data is widely cited as a timely indicator of labor-market trends while official government figures are pending.

Wall Street Forecasts Point to Larger Losses

Wall Street analysts expect steeper declines in the official October nonfarm payrolls report. Goldman Sachs estimated a 50,000-job drop, while a Dow Jones economist survey projected a 60,000 decline and an unemployment rate rising to about 4.5%. These projections, reported by Forbes, were not accompanied by primary research notes for independent review.

If confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), these figures would deepen the weakening labor-market signal implied by ADP’s private-sector data and represent the largest monthly payroll decline since late 2020.

Official Report Delayed, Increasing Reliance on Private Data

The BLS delayed its official October employment report due to the federal government shutdown, according to CNBC. This postponement has increased market reliance on private indicators like ADP’s data to assess labor-market momentum.

ADP’s focus on private employment means its results may diverge from the full nonfarm payroll count, which includes government jobs. The degree to which ADP’s methodology aligns with the forthcoming BLS report remains uncertain until the official data are released.

Implications and Outlook

The combination of ADP’s private-sector contraction and Wall Street forecasts of a 50,000–60,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls signals increased downside risk for near-term labor-market readings. A rise in unemployment toward 4.5% would indicate a meaningful softening in labor demand if confirmed.

Economists and strategists are using private data like ADP’s as interim signals while awaiting official figures, but caution is advised when extrapolating these trends to total payrolls. Market participants should note that the deeper monthly contraction suggested by secondary reports exceeds ADP’s private-sector average alone. Policymakers will look to the official BLS release for a formal assessment of labor-market conditions.

ADP did not offer forward guidance in its Nov. 11 release, and major forecasts remain subject to revision pending access to primary research and the delayed official statistics.

What’s Next

Attention will focus on the eventual BLS release of October’s nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data, which will clarify how closely ADP’s private-sector contraction and Wall Street forecasts reflect the official employment picture. Analysts will continue monitoring private measures and updates from major forecasters for further insight into job losses and unemployment trends.

Major outlets including Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, and CNBC reported on the ADP data and Wall Street forecasts, with Forbes summarizing the projections. Follow-up coverage is expected once the BLS resumes publishing and primary analyst research becomes available.